Afternoon Soybeans: Beans unable to sustain early strength in low volume snooze fest.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market traded quietly lower in a low volume, pre-holiday session. Beans got off to a higher start today but couldn’t sustain that early momentum and closed 2 cents lower. The nearby May-July bull spread gained a tick but the old to new crop calendar spreads traded weaker. Domestic bean basis remains steady to firm. May options expire next Friday and first notice on May futures is the following Thursday the 30<sup>th</sup>. For the week, spot beans lost 6 cents (Nov gained 7), meal lost $4, and bean oil gained .52.<br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil closed higher for a third consecutive session and is knocking at the door of technical overhead against the highs. Meal settled weaker and the oil share spread is trading near a two-week high. Board crush margins gained 4 cents to $1.40/bushel. <br> <br>The weather this weekend will be very wet with 3-5 inch rain totals seen across portions of OK, N AR, MO, C IL, and W IN and some lesser totals in surrounding areas which will temporarily delay planting progress. The date is early enough that this is not market-moving in any way but will be an item to monitor with follow up rains seen for the second half of April. By most accounts, planting progress has been aggressive this week for corn and soybeans for most of the Midwest outside of the areas to the south and east that were limited by recent rains.<br> <br>The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday; we’ll reopen Sunday evening for Monday's trade. Happy Easter!<br> <br>In today’s tariff related news:<br><ul><li>President Trump posts on social media that he ‘had a very productive call with the President of Mexico yesterday.’</li><li>President Trump touted “big progress” in trade talks with Japan on Wednesday, in one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his barrage of tariffs on U.S. trading partners but gave no details of the discussions.</li><li>China’s commerce ministry urged the U.S. to stop putting “extreme pressure” on China and demanded respect in any trade talks, but the two sides remained at an impasse over who should start those talks.</li><li>The trade is watching for an update today on the proposed section 301 shipping fees on Chinese vessels. The public comment period last month was solidly against the move as proposed. I’ve seen unverified reports that this is being pushed to mid-May to reveal specific changes to the proposal with a rollout by mid-November. </li></ul>Elsewhere in the news, Argentine farmers had reaped nearly 5% of soybean fields, putting them 2.6 percentage points behind the five-year average. The crop has shown better-than-expected yields so far, the exchange added, at 3.9 metric tons per hectare. The exchange pegs the soy harvest at 48.6 million tons. Progress is also underway on the corn harvest, which is 28% complete. Yields are surprising to the upside and the corn harvest "could exceed initial expectations," according to the exchange, which estimates production at 49 million tons this season.<br>Abiove raised its 2025 Brazil Soybean export forecast to 108.5 mln mt, if realized it would be a record volume exported. The group's previous outlook was 106.1 mln mt. The group said the US-China trade war will likely benefit Brazil soy exports. Abiove on Thursday lowered its 2025 Brazil soybean ending stocks figure to 5.4 mln mt, off 40.5% from their March estimate at 9.1 mln mt.<br> <br>Th US generated 573 mln biodiesel (D4) blending credits in March vs. 450 mln in February. <br> <br>The latest USDA drought monitor shows the Winter wheat area in drought rose 2% to 34%. This compares to 32% last week and 24% this time last year. The corn area in drought rose 2% to 30%. This compares to 28% last week and 23% this time last year. The soybean area in drought rose 1% to 23%. This compares to 22% last week and 22% this time last year.<br> <br>Old crop soybean sales of 555 tmt (20 mb) were up noticeably from the previous week and up 74% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (157, including decreases of 6), the Netherlands (127, including 120 switched from unknown and decreases of 3), Germany (118), Egypt (108, including 57 from unknown), and China (73, including 135 from unknown and decreases of 66), were offset by reductions for unknown (170). New crop bean sales of 182 tmt were reported for unknown (181). Exports of 722 tmt were down 6% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (204), the Netherlands (127), Germany (118), Mexico (80), and Egypt (57).<br> <br>Old crop meal sales of 146 tmt were down 47% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. New crop meal sales of 9 tmt. Exports of 280 tmt were down 22% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. <br> <br>Old crop oil sales of 10 tmt were down 49% from the previous week and 64% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 16 tmt were down 55% from the previous week and 56% from the prior 4-week average. <br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 3 to +78 <br>St. Louis, MO up 4 to +24k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5k<br>Mankato, MN up 5 to -10k<br>Decatur, IL up 3 to +15k<br>Decatur, IN steady +25k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </div>