The AG Center Cattle Report for Apr 17 2025
<div class="default-font-wrapper" style="line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt !important; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif !important;"> <article class="post-4369 page type-page status-publish hentry" id="post-4369"> <div class="entry-content content"> <p class="has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size" id="block-a2389dc5-71fb-4368-8345-f2ec6b860fbc"> <strong> APRIL 17, 2025 </strong> </p> <h2 class="wp-elements-3b4fb793afda68d8c2d84f7008fd8436 wp-block-heading has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size"> <strong> THE MARKETS </strong> </h2> <p> Packers are ending the week with nothing on hand and asking prices rising each day. ?Good Friday? , a holiday will feature closed futures markets, and many off for the weekend. This will compress trading for the week into today and assure another short slaughter week. The COF report will be released today instead of Friday because of the holiday. </p> <p> Processors slaughtered 564,000 cattle this past week down 27,000 from the previous week, and also down 34,000 from last year. This past week packers sold boxes at lower prices and bought cattle at lower prices with only a small help to plant margins. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years. Beef cow slaughter is near year ago levels with dairy cows slaughter smaller. The shortfall of the cow slaughter has kept packers pulling from the fed cattle population to put together weekly slaughter needs. </p> <h2 class="has-luminous-vivid-orange-color has-text-color"> PRE-RELEASE COF GUESSES </h2> <p> CATTLE ON FEED....... April........ 98.3.............. 97.5-99.0 <br/> PLACED DURING .....March..... 103.7............. 99.0-106.4 <br/> MARKETED DURING.. March. 100.7............. 99.0-101.5 </p> <p> Placements always require context to provide meaning. March this year renewed crossings of Mexican cattle into the United States and compare to a very low placement month a year ago. Expect a possible surprise to the upside on this report. </p> <p class="has-black-color has-text-color"> <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock/live-cattle.quotes.html"> CATTLE FUTURES </a> . Futures posted gains of an additional $2 to make it four days in a row. </p> <p class="has-black-color has-text-color"> B <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf"> enchmarking </a> . On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages. </p> <p id="block-3a527fb0-3476-45d2-9ec5-51cf8a199914"> The <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2700.pdf"> Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report </a> offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous weeks change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 916# up 3# from prior week and 30# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was up 1.0% at 86.40%. The current grading hovers 2% over last year and establishes an all time record high. </p> <p> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls196.txt"> The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report </a> is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area. </p> <p id="block-cdd71a86-4fa0-47b4-bcb5-76846ca0f63d"> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2480.pdf"> Forward Cattle Contracts </a> : Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producers plate in return for an extra margin. </p> <p> Formula and Negotiated Grids. <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf"> The Price and Distribution Report </a> delineates the various selling methods and net results. </p> <p> The <a href="https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/Cattle_Contract_Library"> Cattle Contracts Report </a> details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated. </p> <div class="wp-container-3 wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-container-1 wp-block-column" style="flex-basis:50%"> <div> <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page"> <main b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <article b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; "> <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;"> </div> <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_cc1e54ff_8c18_45e2_b7f9_94975b21f944"> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_2_header"> Choice Cutout </th> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header"> Choice Price Change </th> </tr> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_2 gridview_fields_all"> 333.53 </td> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all"> Down $1.90 </td> </tr> </table> </div> </article> </main> </div> </div> </div> <div class="wp-container-2 wp-block-column" style="flex-basis:50%"> <div> <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page"> <main b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <article b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; "> <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;"> </div> <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_c81b9efa_e27a_4bc3_a61b_d88f8c40feec"> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_2_header"> Select Cutout </th> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header"> Select Price Change </th> </tr> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_2 gridview_fields_all"> 314.39 </td> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all"> Down $0.85 </td> </tr> </table> </div> </article> </main> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswbfrtl.pdf"> Beef Feature Activity Index. </a> </p> <p> Beef demand is coming mostly from the grind that represents almost half of all beef sold. Published reports show hamburger to be not only the most popular item on the meat counter but also the fastest growing. Winter weather pushes consumers to end meats and roasts and historically a spring warm up triggers demand for the middle meats and cook outs. The daily fluctuations of the primals represents seasonal changes and consumer preferences caused by pricing. </p> <p id="block-c889d984-aa16-4a66-891e-0b32eb47a1c3"> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lsddcbs.pdf"> The Cutout </a> . Box prices were stable. The surprisingly small slaughter last week has halted the decline and should stimulate demand with the wildcard being the demand from export markets. </p> <p id="block-c889d984-aa16-4a66-891e-0b32eb47a1c3"> <strong> Replacement markets </strong> </p> <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3"> The cattle futures are telling the marketplace it is time for a price reset. Runaway prices this year have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to top last weeks prices with still higher prices this week. Despite fears from the tariffs and consumer hesitancy for high priced beef, somehow the limited pool of replacements are enjoying intense competition with incremental price increases quoted in $5-$10-$20 rises. </p> <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3"> Summer grazing is upon us. Stocker operators looking to furnish calves for summer grass are finding short supplies. The available offerings are sky high in price taking much of the incentive to graze away unless the operator is willing to bet on larger price increases next fall. Enter two way cattle. These historically have been 500# and 600# cattle placed on grass to return to the feedlot weighing 800+. This year some operators are purchasing 700# animals for summer grazing promising to return them weighing 900# to the feedyard. </p> <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3"> The <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx"> drought monitor </a> continues to favor herd expansion but the rains never fall evenly across all regions. Computer modeling of weather patterns are done by several services and as AI programs interpret the data, those models will compete for accuracy. Currently European weather models compete with our own models and sometimes those models differ. April will be critical towards starting summer grass pastures and spring crops in the plains. </p> <p> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/AMS_1280.pdf"> Oklahoma City </a> . - </p> <p> Compared to last week lighter receipts: Feeder steers over 800lbs 4.00-10.00 higher under 800lbs 20.00-25.00 higher. Feeder heifers 10.00 -20.00 higher. Steer calves 4.00-10.00 higher. Heifer calves 20.00-30.00 higher. Quality was much improved from last week. Demand good. Cattle futures have recovered nicely late last week and today. Rain is forecasted for this weekend. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (52% <br/> Steers, 46% Heifers, 3% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 62% </p> <p id="block-34528486-452c-47a8-93c1-457c87e8cf71"> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1281.pdf"> OKC West </a> </p> <p> Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold fully 20.00 higher from last weeks lighter test. Demand very good. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (33% Steers, 48% Heifers, 14% Bulls, 4% Dairy Heifers). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 22% </p> <p> <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/livestock/feeder-cattle.html"> Feeder Cattle Futures </a> . The feeder contracts moved higher as cash prices rose with smaller receipts at many auction markets. </p> <p> The lack of liquidity in the feeder contract provides a perfect environment for prices to move too far in either direction. Poor liquidity leads to extreme volatility. Overdone directional price movements frequently require corrections and traders sense the vulnerability of the contract that needs to be cash settled but the contract index needs a redo. </p> <p id="block-bfcf4811-2a0e-4226-b09b-c42952601661"> <a data-id="https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=ICX:CME" data-type="URL" href="https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=ICX:CME"> Feeder Cattle Cash Index </a> . The index is tracking the moves in cash prices. </p> <p id="block-987ad7bf-7826-470c-91d0-cb5d19156f32"> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/feeder-cattle-internet-video-reports"> Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions </a> . The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. </p> <p id="block-b7968674-f137-4a0b-be65-ee147fe19634"> <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls850.txt"> National Weekly Feeder Summary </a> released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week. </p> <p class="has-black-color has-text-color"> <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html"> Grain Futures. </a> Corn prices edged higher. Corn has slowly moved higher all this past week. Crop planting is in progress and reports of acreage and rainfall will begin to influence the prices of the new crop. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at $.90 - basis the May contract. </p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color"> THE GAME PLAN? </h2> <p> Participants in the livestock industry hoping to understand the governments plans and policies for trade matters were at a loss. The President seems to have no plan, but is segueing daily from announcement to announcement on the fly. His advisors are expressing differing opinions and foreign leaders are responding to our latest missiles with their own defensive reactions. </p> <p> The beef industry has a right to ask for clarity and stability in the midst of chaos. Trade policy should be strategic and well planned. Fairness and long term relationships are the objective. The beef industry has a high quality product that is desired by many nations around the world because of the high standards for food safety and premium taste. </p> <p> The Presidents message to the industry should not be: ?Good news for Americas farmers and ranchers! Produce more beef so you can sell it all to U.S. consumers?. Even the dumbest beef producer knows that producing more beef without foreign trade partners is a recipe for disaster. At a time when we should be increasing the breeding herd, this message will delay or curtail growth for years. </p> <p> Beef trade protocols for imports and exports are a patchwork of complex rules. Rules vary by country and are subject to quotas and various trade restrictions for both imports and exports. The products exported are often higher quality middle meats bringing premium prices to upscale restaurants around the world. The imports are mostly lower quality cow meat that is used in the grind. In this time of high prices, exports have been declining while imports are on the increase. </p> <p> The industry needs political leadership that promotes our products like beef that have broad demand in other countries. We need policies that inform our foreign trade partners of what to expect in rules and fees for our beef products. What the industry does not need is the uncertainty delivered by this administration. Uncertainty causes purchasers to seek out alternative markets. </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="block-573e0ddc-725d-4da7-b391-3755a41b3cae"> <strong> <a href="https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/the-cattle-report-library-page/"> CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY </a> </strong> </h2> <p id="block-2c233259-805d-40fb-aa45-7b26e558b177"> Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a <a href="https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/the-cattle-report-library-page/"> library page </a> of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry. </p> <p id="block-b4e25beb-e0c0-4159-948a-b1da16a8115f"> <strong> NOTE TO READERS </strong> </p> <p id="block-71dc3367-4f65-4635-b235-efe51e6f5750"> Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report. </p> <p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size" id="block-4122b7d6-fc8c-4a02-b924-d92f81b3ae80"> <strong> EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES </strong> </p> <p id="block-83cbd36c-d741-40fa-8b86-12bd2b699341"> Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma. </p> <p id="block-95888247-d725-4ed9-8aee-1c9c999079d9"> CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION </p> <p class="has-extra-small-font-size"> The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract. </p> <div class="wp-container-5 wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-container-4 wp-block-column"> <div> <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page"> <main b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <article b-8t6ywgks0t=""> <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; "> <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;"> </div> <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_d3744673_45c8_4ea4_a141_b891304247b4"> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header"> INPUTS </th> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_4_header"> TOTAL$ </th> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_5_header"> $CWT </th> </tr> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row"> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all"> 800 # Feeder Steer </td> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_4 gridview_fields_all"> 2,304.24 </td> <div style="display: none;"> </div> <td class="gridview_field_5 gridview_fields_all"> 288.03 </td> </tr> <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_altrow">