Afternoon Soybeans: Bean charts flirting with good trades.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market snapped its two-session streak of lower closes with a reversal higher. Early on with the bull spreads leading, old crop beans traded 9 higher but as the spread strength slipped the flat price also lost its momentum with May beans settling for a 2.75 cent gain on the day. The bean daily charts are on the cusp of breaking out to the topside following last week’s weekly chart key reversal. A weaker dollar remains supportive and today’s selloff has the currency trading right back near last week’s low. Trade volume for beans remains subdued and that likely will be the case tomorrow ahead of the holiday weekend. The weather this weekend will be very wet with 4-5 inch rain totals seen across portions of MO, C IL, and W IN and some lesser totals in surrounding areas which will temporarily delay planting progress. The date is early enough that this is not market-moving in any way but will be an item to monitor with follow up rains seen for the second half of April. Weekly export sales will be out in the morning. Tomorrow may also bring an awaited update on the proposed section 301 shipping fees on Chinese vessels. We have a regular trading schedule tomorrow and then the markets will be closed for Good Friday, reopening Sunday evening for Monday's trade.<br> <br>The Trump admin has shifted gears to focus on negotiations with cooperating trade partners and the onshoring of investment and manufacturing. Meanwhile China has been rightly singled out with the highest tariffs but so far, they have been unwilling to come to the table. <br> <br>In today’s tariff related news:<br><ul><li>A WSJ article says the Trump admin is leveraging global tariff talks to pressure trading partners into limiting economic ties with China. The strategy, led by Treasury Secretary Bessent, is aimed at undercutting Beijing’s global influence by requiring countries to choose between deeper access to the U.S. market or continued engagement with China. Bessent’s plan calls for over 70 nations to: Block Chinese companies from setting up operations to bypass U.S. tariffs; prevent transshipment of Chinese goods through their territories; and avoid absorbing cheap Chinese industrial output into their economies.</li><li>China unexpectedly appointed a new trade negotiator key in any talks to resolve the escalating tariff war with the U.S. replacing trade tsar Wang Shouwen with its envoy to the World Trade Organization.</li><li>Bloomberg quoting an unnamed source: China wants to see a number of steps from President Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet. Beijing also wants the US to appoint a point person for talks who has the president’s support and can help prepare a deal that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping can sign when they meet, the person said.</li><li>President Trump will take part in a meeting later in the day between top officials in his administration and Japan officials to negotiate a tariff deal. Japan typically imports 15-16 mmt of corn in total per year, they have about 9 mmt in US corn commitments this marketing year to date. </li><li>Pakistan will offer to buy more soybeans and cotton from the U.S. as it looks to escape Trump’s tariffs, people with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg. Pakistan typically imports 1-2 mmt of soybeans in total per year, they have imported 261 tmt of US beans this marketing year to date.</li></ul> <br>In the product trade, oil and meal both had a firmer trade with meal gaining back some ground in the oil share spread today. The lack of 45Z policy guidance remains a wet blanket and has prevented a soybean oil breakout above its highs for the past year despite tight inventories and strong overall demand that have seen exports pick up the slack from waning biodiesel blending. Board crush margins gained 4 cents to $1.36/bushel. <br> <br>For tomorrow’s weekly export sales report, the range of trade estimates on combined old/new crop corn sales is .600-2.1 mmt, wheat (100)-500 tmt, beans 100-950 tmt, meal 145-450 tmt, and oil 0-50 tmt. There were daily sales announced for this reporting period of 120 tmt of corn, 253 tmt of oc beans, and 66 tmt of new crop beans. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, Argentine President Javier Milei said that the nation's central bank will not intervene in the foreign-exchange market until the peso reaches 1,000 units per dollar – last at 1,138.<br> <br>Media reports Tuesday suggest two more Iowa biodiesel plants have been idled over concerns about the unfinalized 45Z tax credits federal policies. The report estimates five Iowa plants are now offline, roughly a third of the state's capacity.<br> <br>NOPA March 2025 US Soybean Crush: 194.55 million bushels; expected 197.6 mln bu.; prior month 177.87 mln bu. Marketing year to date, the total crush stands at 1.350 bb compared to the 1.308 bb pace from a year ago. <br> <br>Tuesday's NOPA March 2025 US Soyoil Stocks: 1.498 billion lbs; expected 1.62 bln lbs; prior month 1.503 billion lbs.<br> <br>China's pork output rose 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier to 16.02 million metric tons, helped by a rise in breeding sows last year, pre-holiday slaughter and heavier hog weights. But analysts warn that the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits.<br><br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 3 to +80 <br>St. Louis, MO off 2 to +20k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5k<br>Mankato, MN steady -15k<br>Decatur, IL steady +12k<br>Decatur, IN steady +25k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </div>