Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: NOPA crush out later this morning.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets were mixed with the bean complex and wheat trading lower and corn a freckle higher. Soybeans are correcting for a second day following the 5-session runup of 80 cents that took prices to a 7-week high. The bull spreads are working on a third day of a correction lower but the cash market is tight. Domestic bean basis continues to firm despite the recent gains on the board as farmer sales in response have been somewhat tepid with his focus instead on planting and fieldwork and with prices well short of our February recovery peak. Soybean planting progress debuted at 2% yesterday vs. 3% expected and 3% average. A wet weather forecast across the central and eastern Midwest will limit progress for the coming week. Tariff news is quiet to start the day. It appears that we have shifted gears to focus on negotiations with cooperating trade partners and the onshoring of investment and manufacturing. Meanwhile Beijing is going to stop taking delivery of Boeing planes and is cutting off rare earth minerals to everybody. NOPA crush comes out at 11 am cst. <br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil has traded two-sided overnight but is lower to start the day while meal is leading to the downside as it also is correcting its recent advance. Malaysian palm oil settled 1.5% lower to a two-month low. Palm oil has fallen to a $100/mt discount to soybean oil on the board after trading at over $100/mt premium recently – the discount should encourage more palm oil demand in certain markets at the expense of soybean oil. Board crush margins remain under pressure, off by 3 cents to $1.19/bushel which is 31 cents off from the recent high.<br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Ahead of today's NOPA March soybean crush report, analysts are forecasting the US crush at 197.6 million bushels, that compares with February's crush at 177.87 mln bushels, March 2024 was 196.41 mln bushels. The data will be released on Tuesday, Apr 15 at 11:00 am CT. Analysts are also forecasting NOPA end of March soyoil stockpiles at 1.62 billion lbs, that compares with last month's report at 1.503 bln lbs, and 1.851 billion lbs at the end of March 2024.</li><li>APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said rapeseed could be hit by bad weather and the 2025 crop could be at its lowest level in three years. "Rapeseed production may decline ... due to the reduction of the winter crop area due to moisture deficit in autumn 2024 and due to poor overwintering of crops in a number of major producing regions," the consultancy said. It said on Monday that 2025 rapeseed harvest could decrease by 8% to 3.39 million metric tons against 3.70 million tons in 2024 and 4.72 million tons in 2023. In early April, the minimum temperature in the air and on the soil surface dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius (12.2 degrees Fahrenheit) for 2 to 8 days, and snow and weak soil warming suspended field work and sowing of early spring grains.</li><li>Declining vegetable oil prices are clearing the way for Brazil to increase its mandatory biodiesel blend into diesel to 15%, up from 14%, according to Abiove.</li><li>Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Tuesday reported the government there kept its May crude palm oil export tax unchanged at 10%, but lowered the reference price to 4,449.35 ringgit/mt from April's 4,547.79/mt.</li><li>AmSpec Agri on Tuesday pegged Malaysian palm oil product exports over the first half of April at 450,657 mt, that's above their first half March estimate at 396,865 mt.</li><li>On Tuesday, Intertek estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the April 1-15 period at 491,984 mt, up +17.0% over their first half March export estimate.</li><li>French Farms Ministry on Tuesday updated their 2025 Rapeseed harvest area to 1.29 million hectares from the previous forecast at 1.27 mln ha.</li><li>ADM statement released Monday acknowledged it is shuttering its Chinese domestic trading operations as part of its worldwide cost cutting efforts. The company expects the operations in Shanghai to be fully wound down by this fall.</li></ul><ul type=\"disc\"><li>USDA weekly crop progress report: Soybean planting progress at 2% complete compared to last week's NA% and year ago week 3%</li><li>USDA weekly crop progress report: Cotton planting progress at 5% complete compared to last week's 4% and year ago week 8%</li><li>Weekly bean inspections were 20 mb down from 30 mb last week. Bean inspections total 1.547 bb which is almost 11% ahead of last year's pace of 1.397 bb. Weekly bean inspections need to average 14 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 1.825 bb.</li><li>Euronext Paris May rapeseed futures on Tuesday are trading +6.75 euros higher at 540.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Tuesday traded -2 yuan lower ending at 4,188 yuan/mt; Sept soymeal fell -3 yuan ending at 3,094 yuan/mt</li><li>On Tuesday, Dalian Sept vegoil futures traded lower, soyoil lost -24 yuan lower ending at 7,670 yuan/mt, palm oil gave up -60 yuan ending at 8,128 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian June crude palm oil futures on Tuesday traded -63 ringgit lower ending at 4,107 ringgit/mt</li><li>Malaysian cash offers for June delivered RBD palm oil and olein traded -$10/mt lower on Tuesday, ending at $1,000.00/mt and $1,005.00/mt, respectively</li></ul> Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +84 <br>St. Louis, MO up 2 to +22k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5k<br>Mankato, MN steady -15k<br>Decatur, IL up 6 to +12k<br>Decatur, IN steady +25k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </div>