Corn Morning Update & Commentary: As of 8 AM, Corn 5 pct higher for the week; US Dollar -3.5 pct lower for the week
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, corn futures continued to blaze a trail higher, finishing 2-3 cents higher by the biscuit break. Including the overnight gains, corn futures are on track for 25 cent gains, which is the best weekly gain seen in nearly one year. The wild and wooly moves in the stock market have been getting all the headlines this week; less publicized has been the collapse in the US Dollar, which is on track for a -3.5% weekly loss. That is a gargantuan loss for a major currency, and today’s intraday low would be the lowest trade in three years. The weakness likely reflects liquidation of assets by unhappy foreign customers, along with rising odds of multiple Fed interest rate cuts later this year. What a difference a couple weeks make? The early macro headline today is China raising its own tariffs on the U.S. to 125% versus 84% prior, further saying they would not match further increases as current levels are a ‘joke’. Barring negotiation, such rates are a near de facto embargo of trade on both sides? China has not purchased meaningful quantities of U.S. corn in over one year, which helps explain the market’s relative resilience, at least in part? Also supportive to price has been concern over Brazil’s dry season, which could endanger the current good conditions the safrinha corn crop is enjoying? Stay tuned. The week’s rally is leaving corn modestly overbought with a daily RSI of 75.<br> <br>Report day again brought corn good news, which translated into solid intraday gains. Old crop futures finished 8-9 cents higher, while new crop added 2-4 cents. Funds are believed net long at least 75,000 lots with a CFTC update pending tonight. Cash trade was steady/firm as farmers worry more about planting preparations and less about marketing grain. The April WASDE made modest adjustments to domestic corn demand, boosting U.S. exports by 100 million bushels and trimming feed/residual by 25 million. Net/net, domestic carryout tightened another notch (-75 mil bu) to 1.465 billion, which compares to 1.763 billion last year, and is closing in on 1.360 billion in 22/23 (when CK23 was trading $6+). The only major world production change was a +1.3 mmt increase in EU corn production for 24/25. This was more than offset by an increase in world corn demand (+2.5 mmt), so net/net, world corn carryout also inched another notch lower to 287.65 mmt), the tightest world corn carryout seen in over one decade (versus 314.3 last year, and 304.8 mmt in 23/24). Weekly export sales were ‘in-line’ with expectations; old crop sales were a little light at 785,600 metric tons, but new crop (25/26) chipped in 236,200. South Korea, an often choosy buyer, was the top customer for the period. Corn sold/shipped for 24/25 moves up to 55 million metric tons (mmt), comfortably ahead of the prior year’s 44 mmt, and on pace to meet the recently upgraded 64.77 mmt forecast.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>-- On Friday, in their weekly report, France AgriMer estimated Corn planting progress at 15% complete up from last week's 2% pace<br> <br>-- On Friday, in their weekly report, France AgriMer placed Spring Barley conditions at 84% good to excellent, that compares with 86% last week<br> <br>-- On Friday, in their weekly report, France AgriMer placed Winter Barley conditions at 72% good to excellent, that compares with 71% last week<br> <br>-- Russian officials Friday said more than 93% of the country's winter grain crops are in normal conditions<br> <br>-- Thailand's finance minister Friday said they are planning on cutting import tariffs on US Corn, move to import more US natural gas and increase joint investment in the energy sector. Thailand's exports to the US were $54.9 billion, around 19% of their total exports. The US is estimated to run a trade deficit of -$45.6 billion with Thailand.<br> <br>-- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report Thursday kept their Argentine Corn production forecast unchanged at 49.0 mln mt, yields are expected to average 83.3 mt/ha<br> <br>-- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report Thursday kept their Argentine Corn harvest at 23.1% complete with 13.5 mln mt collected so far<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: On Thursday (4/10), Jordan's state grain buyer set April 16th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking 120,000 mt of feed Barley. The grain is for shipment between Aug 1 through Sep 30th.<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Friday are trading -0.50 euro lower at 207.50 euros/mt<br><br>KJ</div>