Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: 8 am exports sales reported for a second day now.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets were firmer with the crop report now behind us and a somewhat, if only temporary, pause in the tariff chaos fostering short covering (reflected by significant reductions in open interest in corn, beans and bean oil) and technical buying. China bumped its tariff on US imports to 125% from 84% so a US response is awaited. Meanwhile negotiations with trade partners are ongoing and the Trump administration will want to demonstrate progress and results by closing some deals. The US dollar index broke down to a 2 year low on the front month. Weakness in the dollar is adding tailwinds to the Ag recovery effort. The USDA reported another private sale of US beans to unknown, 55 tmt old crop and 66 tmt for the new crop. The weather forecast features warm temps and a drier trend which will support aggressive planting in the coming weeks. May beans are trading 2.5 cents higher heading into the biscuit break although the new crop November futures are leading from the back end of the curve, trading 6.25 cents higher. The spread weakness is a caution flag for flat price gains although domestic basis remains firm and looking to entice cash sales from a farmer who is disengaged. For the week, beans are up by 54 cents, more than erasing last week’s flush. <br> <br> In the product trade, bean oil has regained its mojo and is leading the oil share higher. Optimism over policy discussions for biodiesel subsidies has underpinned bean oil futures on the break but the market continues to look for tangible guidance. Board crush margins are steady at $1.35/bushel. <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>China raised tariffs to 125% from 84% on US imports starting April 12th.</li><li>India extractors association Friday esitmated total vegetable oil imports at 1.00 mln mt during March, up from the 900,000 mt in February. March imports included 424,599 mt of palm oil, 355,358 mt of soyoil, and 190,645 mt of sunflower oil</li><li>Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report Thursday estimated the Argentine soybean harvest at 2.6% complete, that is lagging the 10.6% pace last year, and 6.6% average harvest pace over the past five years.</li><li>Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly report Thursday estimated the Argentine soybean conditions at 37% good to excellent, 42% fair, and 21% poor, very poor</li><li>Datagro analysts on Thursday said Brazil soybean export sales through April hits record 88.2 mln mt, estimating some 52.2% of the crop has been sold through the first week of April.</li><li>Agroconsult analysts say more than half the 24/25 Brazil soybean crop has been sold so far this year. The group is forecasting 24/25 production at 172.1 mln mt.</li><li>Euronext Paris May rapeseed futures on Friday are trading -1.00 euro lower at 511.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Friday last traded +79 yuan higher ending at 4,175 yuan/mt; Sept soymeal fell -19 yuan finishing at 3,074 yuan/mt</li><li>Dalian Sept vegoil futures on Friday traded higher, palm oil added +70 yuan ending at 8,182 yuan/mt, soyoil gained +36 yuan ending at 7,652 yuan/mt</li><li>On Friday, Malaysian June cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded +$2.50 higher ending at $1,022.50/mt and $1,027.50/mt, respectively</li><li>Malaysian June crude palm oil futures on Friday last traded +14 ringgit higher ending at 4,214 ringgit/mt</li></ul><br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +67 <br>St. Louis, MO up 2 to +19k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5k<br>Mankato, MN steady -15k<br>Decatur, IL steady +6k<br>Decatur, IN up 5 to +25k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </div>