Afternoon Corn: Turnaround Thursday following a Wednesday wipe-out
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>Turnaround Thursday? Corn futures bounced back from a Wednesday Wipeout, finishing four cents higher across the board. Funds are believed net long 240,000 delta-adjusted corn with a CFTC update pending tomorrow night. Cash trade was mixed.<br> <br>Early news flow was a mixed bag of myriad minor inputs. Brazil’s CONAB up-ticked full year corn production to 122.76 mmt versus 122.00 prior. They left their corn export outlook unchanged at 34 mmt. Rosario remains surprisingly negative on Argentina’s corn production, bucking recent market ideas there of improvemnt; they see production falling another -1.5 mmt from prior outlook to 44.5 mmt. USDA is at 50?? So, call it a wash, though current weather in South America does appear to tilt slightly in the bear direction with good safrinha conditions prevailing in the short-term. RGDS is an exception, as it is expected to dry out? Plenty of growing season to go!<br> <br>The weekly export sales report was ‘just ok’ in our view; old crop corn sales were 967,300 metric tons (mt), up +6% from last week but down 19% from prior averages (ie: deceleration). Mexico was responsible for roughly one-half the business. Corn sold/shipped for the current year moves up to 50.5 million metric tons (mmt), which is comfortably ahead of last year’s 40.5 mmt, and is at 80% of the USDA’s sales objective for 24/25 of 62.2 mmt. There was a flurry of South Korean corn buying overnight that offered slightly better news; 262,000 metric tons of optional origin corn purchased with another 140,000 metric tons in the tender hopper. <br> <br>Elsewhere, outside markets flipped back to a ‘risk-off’ mode, despite another round of positive economic data. Most equity indices traded to new recent lows, the US Dollar bounced off its lows, and Crude Oil’s anemic rebound slipped into reverse with a $1 lower. Probably didn’t help matters when the White House threatened the EU with 200% wine tariffs?! End-user markets were mixed; hogs weak, cattle mixed, and milk firm. Milk futures have rebounded more than +10% off last week’s ten month low? Weekly USDA reporting yesterday found broiler egg sets up 3% yr/yr and chick placements up +2%. Totals are trending higher, likely spurred by strong chicken pricing in recent weeks?<br> <br>In the options, 2,800 of the July $5.50 Calls traded mid-morning at five cents. Calendar spreads were mixed. Corn lost a little ground to both beans and wheat. Looking at the charts, last week’s lows ($4.42 CK, $4.41 CZ) have established support for the corn market. We see fib retracements as initial resistance; the market was not able to get above the 50% level of $4.81. Similar resistance at $4.60 in CZ has tripped up that contract. Corn futures are no longer meaningfully oversold (30’s RSI). Futures do not currently seem sure of whether they want to re-test support or renew the effort to retrace the previous sell-off?<br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>