Afternoon wheat: A firm start to the week for the wheat complex
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago May wheat started the night firm, racing out to nine-cent gains. By the early morning, the market had given back much of those gains, but trade firmed again over the latter half of the night and finished more than ten higher. The buying continued at the start of the day, peaking at almost 15 higher before settling into a 8 to 14-cent higher trading range for much of the rest of the day. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>KC May wheat started the night firm, racing out to nine-cent gains. Futures setback to around three higher by the early morning hours before firming again into the morning break and finishing nine higher. The buying continued at the start of the day, quickly trading out to gains of 14 cents, leveled out, then firmed midday, peaking at almost 19 higher before giving back a little late and finishing a nickel off its highs. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Crop Report estimates: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The March WASDE will be out in the morning. It is typically not a market-moving report, at least for wheat. US wheat ending stocks are expected to be nearly unchanged month over month with the avg trade estimate coming in at 797 mil bu vs 794 mil bu last month, with a range of estimates between 779 mil and 835 mil bu. Global ending stocks are not expected to see much change either, with an avg trade estimate of 257.62 MMT vs 257.56 MMT last month, with a range of estimates between 256 and 259.34 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Deliveries: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>There were 10 deliveries of Chicago wheat. Plus500US put out all 10, while Marex Rosenthal stopped 6 of the 10. There were 19 deliveries of KC wheat. Plus500US (9) and Marex Capital M (9) put them out, while JP Morgan stopped 16 of the 19.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Wheat shipments came in at 216 TMT (7.9 mil bu) vs last week’s adjusted 391 TMT and 486 TMT this time last year. Marketing year-to-date shipments (through March 6) stand at over 15.8 MMT (582.3 mil bu) compared to just over 13.4 MMT (494.4 mil bu) this time last year. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>IKAR said Russian wheat prices for 12.5 pro wheat for early April delivery fell one dollar week over week to $247.00/mt FOB. Prices have now declined two weeks in a row, but they have yet to regain competitiveness against European grains. The group left their wheat export forecast for March at between 1.1 and 1.3 MMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>India’s gov’t projects 2025 wheat production of 115.4 MMT. Just last week, a survey of wheat processor’s in India had projected very little change in the country’s wheat production for 2025 when compared to 2024, and estimated production closer towards 106 MMT, while India’s Flour Mill Federation had projected wheat production for 2025 near 110 MMT. Again, it behooves the Indian gov’t to project a higher wheat output as they are expected to buy upwards of 31 MMT of wheat domestically during its procurement season. However, over the past several years, the gov’t has fallen far from its purchase goal. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Iraqi gov’t officials issued a statement noting its strategic wheat reserves are nearly 3.7 MMT, which is sufficient enough for the balance of the year. Maybe possibly even enough to grant Tunisia’s request to buy 100 TMT of wheat from Iraq each month until the end of the year. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Syria is in for up to 100 TMT of opt origin soft milling wheat. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March 11 Jordan is back in for up to 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March 12 Algeria’s OAIC is in for a nominal 50 TMT of milling wheat, but they usually tend to buy much more. The wheat is sought for shipment in two periods from the main supply regions including Europe: May 1-15 and May 16-31. In its last full purchase back on Feb 12, the OAIC bought between 360 and 480 TMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>