Afternoon wheat: Crop Report data not very influential for wheat, yet SRW futures moves into another new contract low
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Crop Report Day finally arrived, but there were some influences prior to the mid-morning data dump as well. The US Dollar was into new contract highs, and export sales in beans, corn and wheat were all marketing year lows, yet corn and beans firmed a bit into the crop report, while wheat struggled, with SRW futures falling into new contract lows yet again, and Mpls just missing (by two cents).</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago March wheat battled both sides of unchanged through the night but weakened into the morning break and finished three cents lower. The selling continued leading up to the crop report, with futures falling into a new contract low and eight cents lower. The crop report data was not friendly to wheat, but it was to corn and beans, and with those markets racing higher, wheat followed, rallying 15 cents and briefly trading seven cents higher before reversing back lower. Late price action saw most of the trade between three and five lower and that is where the market closed. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March KC wheat also battled both sides of unchanged through the night and weakened into the morning break. Here, trade finished the night two cents lower and continued to weaken into the crop report with futures falling to more than six cents lower. Post-report saw the market rally 13 cents before reversing lower, but here the market caught at a couple cents lower and rallied into the close to finish with slight gains. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>What the Crop Report said: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Wheat:</span></u></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>The USDA projects Winter wheat planted acres to be up 725,000 from last year. Most traders were looking for acres to be similar to last year, but the bias was for slightly lower acres year over year. The small increase was probably slightly negative towards trade, but not a game changer. Approximate class breakdowns were as follows: </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'>HRW wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>of 24 mil, which compares to final 2024 plantings of 23.787 mil and the avg trade guess of 23.733 mil. The largest increase in planted acreage is estimated in Texas and Montana (+300 K each), while the largest decreases in planted acreage are estimated in Kansas (200 K) and Okla (100 K).</span></p><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'>SRW wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>of 6.44 mil, which compares to final 2024 plantings of 6.062 mil and the avg trade guess of 6.141 mil. The largest increase in planted acreage is estimated in Michigan (+150 K) and Ohio (+140 K), while small decreases are expected in Kent, Mo and South Dakota. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'>White Winter wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>of 3.64 mil, which compares to final 2024 plantings of 3.541 mil and the avg trade guess of 3.496 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'>All Winter wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#80340D;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>of 34.115 mil, which compares to final 2024 plantings of 33.390 mil and the avg trade guess of 33.366 mil.</span></p><br><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On the US balance sheet, expectations were for very minor changes, though the USDA does have a tendency to some “house cleaning” in this report. There were no adjustments from prior years, and there were only two changes on the 24/25 balance sheet. Imports were raised 5 mil up to 125. It was the fourth straight month the USDA raised imports 5 mil. And food/seed was raised 2 mil to 1.030, possibly on the slightly larger than expected planting intentions. The net result from these two changes raised 24/25 ending stocks 3 mil up to 798 mil, which was close to the trade expectation. The avg farm price was lowered a nickel to $5.55. Looking at the class breakdown, there were only two modest class changes. HRW wheat ending stocks were raised 14 mil bu up to 384 mil and White ending stocks were lowered 10 mil bu down to 70 mil. Spring wheat ending stocks were left unchanged month over month at 198 mil, durum ending stocks were left unchanged month over month at 36 mil and SRW wheat ending stocks were lowered one mil down to 110 mil. </span></p><br><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The USDA did not make any significant changes in the Global numbers, though they were raised slightly month over month while many were looking for a slight reduction. Beginning stocks were raised marginally (Canada and Kazakhstan each were raised around 100 TMT, while SE Asia was lowered 200 TMT). Production was increased 300 TMT (China 100 TMT). Imports were lowered a little over one mil (China lowered 500 TMT). Domestic feed increased marginally (Ukraine was raised 300 TMT). And exports were lowered 1.65 MMT (Russia lowered 1 MMT and Ukraine lowered 500 TMT). The net result of these changes caused the USDA to raise World wheat ending stocks just under one mil up to 258.82 MMT, primarily on increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China, and Indonesia. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The quarterly stocks data came in right at trade expectations. Most were looking for stocks to be around 10% larger than last year at this time, and that is what the USDA gave us. The pegged all wheat stocks stored in all positions as of Dec 1, 2024 at just under 1.570 bil bu, which is up 10% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at just under 467 mil bu, which compares to a little over 401 mil bu last December. Off-farm stocks were said to be a little over 1.103 bil bu, which compares to 1.020 bil bu last December. The Sept - Nov indicated disappearance was 423 mil bu, which was 22% above the same period a year earlier (357 mil). </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The USDA reported 2024 failed wheat acres as of Jan 2 of 0.361 mil, which was unchanged from prior. US wheat prevent plant acres were 0.391 mil, also unchanged from prior.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Wheat sales came in at 111,300 mt (4.089 mil bu), which is a marketing year low for a second week in a row. The breakdown included HRW sales of 18,100 mt, SRW sales of a net NEG 1,200 mt, HRS sales of 35,200 mt, White sales of 59,200 mt and Durum sales of 20,000 mt. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>France's largest grain terminal, Senelia, said they expect 24/25 marketing year grain handling to fall to only 1.6 MMT, which compares to the 23/24 marketing year's 3.85 MMT, due to a poor French harvest.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Due to the National Day of Mourning for the passing of former President Jimmy Carter on Thursday, this week’s Commitments of Traders Report will be released on Monday, January 13.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>** Late Thursday, Taiwan Flour Millers bought 114,650 mt of US wheat in two separate trenches. In the first, they reportedly paid $285.66/mt FOB for 38,300 mt of Dark Northern Spring, paid $259.41/mt FOB for 12,475 mt of HRW and paid $228.54/mt FOB for 6,925 mt of soft white. This trench is for shipment from March 8 to 22. In the second trench for delivery from March 26 to Apr 9, they bought 38,100 mt of DNS priced at $285.66/mt FOB, 12,450 mt of HRW at $256.47/mt FOB and 6,400 mt of soft white at $229.81/mt FOB.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>** Jordan bought 60 TMT of opt origin milling wheat (had been in for as much as 120 TMT). They reportedly paid $268.90/mt C&F for the grain. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>** Bangladesh is in for milling wheat. They have several tenders still open. No purchase has been finalized and may take considerable time before purchases can be confirmed.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>** Jan 14 Jordan is back in for 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat. </span></p><br><br><br><br><br><br><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'> </span></p><br></div>