Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Quietly lower to start; many dates coming up on the calendar
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, corn futures leaned easier, finishing around two cents lower by the morning pause. It is another quiet news day and outside markets are somewhat mixed; oil and stocks a little better, but so is the US Dollar. The report-du-jour is the weekly EIA. After leaping to a new record high the prior week, we think it might be time for ethanol production to take a small breather, perhaps setting back 1% wk/wk. Domestic ethanol demand should hold about steady, while ethanol exports could be due a breather of their own. Ethanol stocks should continue to build, likely by around +1-2% wk/wk. Ethanol futures have been choppy this week; lower Monday, higher on “Turnaround Tuesday”. We think an average Midwest ethanol plant is breakeven or losing a little money today, net of all costs. There were no 8 AM sales for corn, and there is no real change in favorable South American conditions (Argentina gets a little drier short-term?). We are just under one week away from the next monthly USDA report (Dec WASDE), which is a pure balance sheet update (ie: no new state-by-state production estimates). There is a key court date coming in the Mexico GMO saga on Dec 14th, and U.S. gov’t funding expires Dec 20th.<br> <br>Two-sided trade continues. Tuesday was the opposite of Monday; overnight gains did not survive the opening hour, and the market spent the balance of the day treading water with small losses. Corn finished the day steady to one cent lower. Funds likely did not change course much; we think they are net long around 100,000 delta-adjusted contracts. Cash trade was roughly steady. There was not a lot of grain news around; the same cannot be said for general world news. There is the obvious; ongoing Middle East conflict, Russia-Ukraine, and major changes to the political landscape ahead. Then there are things that don’t make the daily bingo card; Tuesday’s ‘out of left field’ event was the declaration of martial law by democratic South Korea. The move appears to be political maneuvering amid a contentious stand-off between the executive and legislative branches in that country? Martial law was quickly reversed by South Korea’s parliament, but significant happenings there would have an impact on U.S. agriculture. South Korea is a large importer of grains and some meats (particularly beef).<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, Jordan's state grain buyer did not make any purchase in their 120,000 mt Barley tender that closed today. Another tender is expected to be announced shortly and is expected to close on Dec 11th.<br> <br>-- On Thursday, Stats Canada will release their 24/25 crop production figures around 7:30 am CT.<br> <br>-- Ahead of Thursday's Stats Canada crop report analysts are estimating 24/25 Corn production at 15.37 mln mt, that compares with last year's 15.42 mln mt crop.<br> <br>-- Ahead of Thursday's Stats Canada crop report analysts are estimating 24/25 Oats production at 3.1 mln mt, that compares with last year's 2.64 mln mt crop.<br> <br>-- Ahead of Thursday's Stats Canada crop report analysts are estimating 24/25 Barley production at 7.8 mln mt, that compares with last year's 8.91 mln mt crop.<br> <br>-- Mexico's economics minister said he expects a resolution regarding imports of GMO corn dispute under USMCA by December 14th. The recently installed Mexican President administration said they will seek to protect the country's non-GMO white corn self sufficiency, rather than seeking to curb imports of largely yellow GMO corn.<br> <br>-- Despite repeated previous comments from the US Treasury Department regarding issuance of new clean fuel tax credit guidance, sources cited by Reuters on Wednesday say the Biden administration will not issue that detailed guidance before January 20th inauguration. The tax credits for sustainable aviation fuels was expected to come into effect on January 1st.<br> <br>-- US Senator Grassley said the biofuel industry would be disrupted by delaying the clean fuel tax credits, chiding the Biden administration for prioritizing pet projects on the two coasts, but leaving out Midwest Americans.<br> <br>-- US Farm Sector Profits Forecast To Fall in 2024: US net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $140.7 billion in calendar year 2024, a decrease of $6.0 billion (4.1 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $9.5 billion (6.3 percent) in 2024 relative to 2023. Despite this expected decline, net farm income in 2024 would be 15.9 percent above its 20-year average (2004–23) of $121.4 billion.<br> <br>-- Net cash farm income is forecast at $158.8 billion in 2024, a decrease of $1.8 billion (1.1 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal dollars. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $5.7 billion (3.5 percent) from 2023. In 2024, net cash farm income is forecast to be 9.8 percent above its 2004–23 average of $144.7 billion. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.<br> <br>-- As of December 1, accumulated 24/25 MY EU Corn imports totaled 8.51 mln mt (last report 7.94 mln mt), that compares to the year earlier week's 7.71 mln mt<br> <br>-- As of December 1, accumulated 24/25 MY EU Barley exports totaled 1.89 mln mt (last report 1.89 mln mt), that compares to the year earlier week's 3.06 mln mt<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>NA<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Wednesday are trading -0.75 euro lower at 205.25 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian January corn futures on Wednesday traded -24 yuan lower ending at 2,099 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: December Corn 111<br><br>KJ</div>