Afternoon Corn: Respecting the range so far
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>Another two-sided day of trade. Futures were weak overnight, reversed the early down but struggled to maintain any upside zip. The corn market finished the day fractionally higher or lower. Cash trade was steady/firm on the interior but mixed at the Gulf.<br> <br>The news wires were quiet over the weekend; the lack of fodder likely restricted the market’s ability to respond to Friday’s positive trade and the early attempt at a reversal higher. Outside markets leaned a little net bearish today, headlined by a one-half percent rebound in the Dollar following last week’s sharp correction lower. South American weather also remained in a favorable holding pattern; some chatter of a little dryer weather in Argentina looking out a couple weeks, but in the meantime most of Brazil and Argentina are expected to receive beneficial rains. <br> <br>CFTC Commitment of Traders data this afternoon, delayed due to last week’s holiday, found funds switched gears a little on corn. For the week ended 11/26 (Tues), Managed Money players were net sellers of 17,186 corn contracts. Commercial and small (non-reportable) traders were the offsetting purchasers. Supplemental data suggests the selling was one-third long liquidation and two-thirds new short positions. When including recent activity, we think funds are net long slightly more than 100,000 delta-adjusted corn contracts.<br> <br>The weekly grain inspections report also did not ruffle any feathers. For the week ended 11/28, U.S. exporters shipped 935,859 metric tons of corn, which was down slightly from the prior week’s 1.009 million metric tons (mmt), and even lagged the year ago week’s 1.176 mmt. It was notable that destinations were quite varied; Japan, South Korea, and Latin America, were all in for small lots. YTD corn inspections move to 11.07 mmt, which is still running comfortably ahead of the prior year’s 8.468 mmt pace. There were no 8 AM sales for corn today, and there were no export news headlines of note seen over the long(ish) weekend.<br> <br>In the options, volatility was a little easier. Calendar spreads were weaker between crop years (though the deliverable Dec ’24 firmed slightly). Corn gained on the beans and (most) wheat futures. Eyeing the charts, corn futures continue to find meaningful resistance around $4.50 March. CH initial support at $4.30 effectively held with Friday’s bounce; we see more significant levels ahead in the $4.15-4.20 area if we break farther. Momentum indicators still lean a little negative on the daily (weekly is still positive), and the RSI is not oversold (47 for CH). ‘Red’ Dec ’25 futures are trying to bounce after testing contract lows last week.<br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>