Afternoon wheat: Another new contract low for KC wheat
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago March wheat saw mostly lower trade throughout the night, with futures slipping to around a nickel lower. Once the day session started a bid surfaced and the market rallied nine cents. The rally peaked at almost a nickel higher, then gradually weakened the rest of the morning, with price action turning two-sided over the latter half of the day before finishing marginally lower. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March KC wheat saw very similar price action to that of Chicago throughout the day, and the results were similar as well. The difference with KC is that trade moved into a new contract low on Friday, and with today’s lower close (albeit marginally lower) it makes for a second straight day of posting a new contract low. Not only that, but today was the market’s sixth consecutive session in which it has posted a lower high on the chart. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The March KC/Chicago spread started the night marginally weaker but firmed into the early morning hours and finished the night with slight gains. Once the day session started the spread initial weakened a couple cents before bouncing right back and trading slightly higher the rest of the day. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>DELIVERIES: </span></u></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>There were 45 KC wheat deliveries over the weekend. RJO issued 34, while Soc Gen stopped all 45. There were no deliveries in SRW wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Wheat shipments last week were 296,106 mt (10.880 mil bu) vs last week’s adjusted 364,783 mt and 188,298 mt this time last year. Marketing year-to-date shipments (through Nov 28) stand at 10.986 MMT (403.677 mil bu) vs 8.336 MMT (306.297 mil bu) this time last year. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The COT report this afternoon (delayed one day because of Thanksgiving last week) showed the large spec was sellers of 7,608 contracts of Chicago wheat during the week ending Nov 26, which at the time, increased their short position to 92,290 contracts. In KC, funds were sellers of 465 contracts, which at the time increased their short position to 40,417 contracts. Managed money was sellers of 7,572 contracts of Chicago wheat, which at the time, increased their short position to 59,118 contracts. In KC, managed money sold 1,286 contracts, which at the time, increased their short position to 30,661 contracts. In Mpls, managed money sold 225 contracts, which, at the time, increased their short position to 30,227 contracts.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>ABARE was out this morning updating their production estimates. They increased their wheat production forecast 100 TMT to 31.9 MMT. They cited good yields in the east and west more than offset losses in the south behind their minor increase. Frosts and dry weather had caused private-sector analysts to lower their wheat production estimates, but results from the ongoing harvest have thus far exceeded expectations. The USDA’s Aussie wheat production forecast is very similar at 32 MMT. Last year’s Aussie wheat production was just under 26 MMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Rosario Grain Exchange said recent rains across Argentina's agricultural heartland have brought much-needed moisture to the soil as farmers are in the early stages of planting soybeans and corn. They project soybean production of between 53 and 53.5 MMT and corn production of between 50 and 51 MMT. Wheat harvest should conclude in January, with production expected around 18.8 MMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>China may soon be buying Argentine wheat for the first time since before 2000. Earlier this year China suggested they would look towards Argentina again for any wheat needs after a long hiatus following gov’t authorization of Argentine wheat shipments. They did the same for Argentine corn. Although any volumes the Chinese buy of either wheat or corn from Argentina will probably be small, it is another example of alternative trade routes China is trying to secure, bypassing the US. While Argentine wheat values are not the cheapest Globally, they have become much more competitive of late.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>IKAR said prices for 12.5 pro wheat for LH Dec delivery did not change for a second consecutive week and remained at $226.00/mt FOB. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>SovEcon had prices for the same class of wheat down between two dollars week over week, falling to between $226 and $229/mt FOB. They project Russian wheat exports last week at 550 TMT, down from 720 TMT the week prior. They revised lower their export forecast for Nov by 100 TMT down to 4.1 MMT due to an expected slowdown in exports via Black Sea ports amid adverse weather conditions. They project exports in Dec of around 3.6 MMT compared to 4.1 MMT in the year ago month. They added that the 2024 harvest is just about wrapped up. They project total wheat production of 84.5 MMT compared to 94.7 MMT the year prior. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>India farm ministry data shows since October 1, farmers have planted 20.0 mil hectares of wheat. This is 6.6% larger than planted acres seen at this time last year.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The Russian Union of Grain Exporters commented that wheat importers from Morocco's FNCL reportedly have signed a deal to increase imports of Russian grains. Moroccan traders expect to import more wheat from Russia than France this year. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Bangladesh is in for 50 TMT of milling wheat. In this tender, the lowest offer is said to be $286.08/mt C&F. They have several open tenders, including one from a couple weeks ago where the lowest offer was $292.14/mt. No purchase has been finalized and may take considerable time before purchases can be confirmed.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Dec 3 Jordan is back in for 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Dec 4 Turkey is seeking to sell 100,000 mt of durum wheat for export.</span></p></div>