Afternoon Soybeans: Oil inventories continue to draw despite record crush.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market struggled with a weaker trade during the day session despite ongoing demand news around the headlines. Currency trends, favorable Southern Hemisphere weather, plummeting crush margins, and tariff uncertainty are weighing on sentiment and preventing the futures from getting excited about the execution of our front-end loaded export program and our record domestic crush usage which also faces uncertainty from government inaction on subsidy guidance along with a new administration set to retake the white house. January beans settled 4.25 cents lower but rallied almost 8 cents off the low over the second half of the day. New crop November beans traded down into a new contract low before it similarly bounced back to settle 5.25 cents lower. The bull spread action was firmer and the nearby Jan-March spread settled at a new high for its move at a 5.75 cent carry. New crop corn gained on new crop beans for a second consecutive day which narrowed the ratio back to 2.33%. <br> <br></span></div><div id=\"isPasted\" style=\"line-height: 1;\">South American crop weather remains favorable for planting and production potential. Brazil and Argentina crops will all receive rain during the next ten days to two weeks. There is some potential for too much rain late this week into next week in parts of southern Brazil and Paraguay but those regions had been trending dry so while we may see some temporary fieldwork disruptions, the rain will help recharge moisture reserves and will be a positive for crops.</div><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><br> <br>The USDA reported 134 tmt of soybeans sold to China. China continues to fill in their nearby demand needs but are expected to shift away from US soybeans seasonally once Brazil soybeans become available from February forward.<br> <br>Weekly grain inspections of corn were 37 mb down from 40 mb last week, bean inspections were 77 mb down from 78 mb last week, wheat inspections were 11 mb down from 13 mb last week. <br>In the product trade, oil and meal both traded weaker while oil gained slightly in the oil share spread. Bean oil was unable to tag along with strength in the global veg oil markets. Bean oil futures continue to respond to domestic and global demand headlines regarding biofuels which has contributed to a volatile trade and liquidation of length. Board crush margins dropped 8 cents to a new multi-month low at $1.04/bushel.<br> <br>The USDA census crush for October established a new all-time crush for any month of 215.6 mb compared to the average trade guess of 210.6 mb. This compares to last October’s crush of 201.3 mb, and the prior month September 2024 crush of 186.5 mb. Oil stocks at the end of October tightened to 1.485 bln lbs compared to the average trade guess off 1.520 bln lbs and are the tighest since November 2016 (1.473 bln lbs). Biofuel feedstock demand and renewed export interest are drawing down bean oil stocks despite the record crush. Seasonally, winter time is when bean oil stocks tend to build so that <u>should</u> provide some relief to supply tightness in the coming months. This compares to last Octobers’s oil inventory of 1.502 bln lbs and the prior month September 2024 stocks of 1.501 bln lbs. Meal stocks in October were 303,430 short tons compared to last Octobers’ meal inventory of 201,071 and the prior month September 2024 stocks of 413,414. Meal stocks sit at a six-month low. <br> <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, AgRural analysts Monday reported 91% of the Brazil 24/25 Soybean crop has been planted, up from 86% in the prior week, and ahead of 85% pace in the year ago week. They noted the latest weekly planting estimate is the quickest since the 2018 season. 94% of the Brazil 24/25 Corn crop has been planted.<br> <br>Brazil’s soybean crop is forecast to reach 170.8 mmt according to Celeres.<br> <br>India farm ministry data released Monday estimated that since October 1st, farmers have planted 7.6 mln hectares of Rapeseed and mustard, that's below the 8.0 mln mt in the year earlier period.<br> <br>Australia's ABARE on Monday forecast the 2024/25 Canola crop production at 5.6 mln mt, if realized that would be down -8% from the 23/24 crop.<br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts on Friday projected the 2025 EU Rapeseed crop production at 18.7 mln mt, that's 2.0 mln mt more than the 2024 estimate. EU Sunflower Seed crop production at 10.5 mln mt, that's 2.1 mln mt more than the 2024 estimate. EU Soybean crop production at 3.1 mln mt, that's 200,000 mt over the 2024 crop estimate.<br><br>Chinese Ag Ministry data released Monday shows the country's end of October 2024 sow herd at 40.73 million head, that's off -3.2% from the year ago month. Over the first 10 months of 2024 pig slaughter has fallen -2.6% to 264.21 mln head compared to the year earlier period.<br> <br>CBOT deliveries: December Soybean Meal 394, Soybean Oil 0.<br> <br><br> Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 1 to +86 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA off 5 to -5f<br>Mankato, MN up 10 to +5f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN steady +5f <br>Columbus, OH steady -10f <br> </span></div></div>