Afternoon wheat: Markets set back, but still finish higher for the week
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Plenty of open interest is expected to come off the board with Friday’s expiration of Dec grain options. We will have to see how it pans out on Monday. Otherwise, many of the same headlines we saw throughout the week continue to resonate around trade. Modest escalation in the Black Sea conflict has been offset by a surging Dollar that rallied into two-year highs on Friday.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago March wheat futures battled both sides of unchanged during the night, but once trade moved to the day session price action turned mostly lower. The dagger was a mid-morning break that dropped futures to six lower, as trade never recovered from that move and the market ultimately finished with modest losses. Thanks to a strong start to the week, the market still posted almost eight-cent weekly gains, but it ended up being an inside week on the chart. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March KC wheat saw similar price action to Chicago during the night and day. Here, the overnight break dropped futures to a nickel lower, but by the morning break, the market was trading three cents higher. The opening hour of the day was mixed, but the mid-morning break dropped futures back down to their overnight lows, and price action the rest of the day was lower, though the market did finish three cents off its lows.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-size:11pt;font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>First notice on December grain futures is a week from today. That means longs will need to be out or rolled by Wednesday's close to avoid delivery risk as Thursday the grain markets are closed because of the Thanksgiving Holiday.</span></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'><span style=\"text-decoration:none;\"> </span></span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The COT report Friday afternoon showed the large spec was sellers of 2,029 contracts of Chicago wheat during the week ending Nov 19, which at the time, increased their short position to 84,682 contracts. In KC, funds were sellers of 54 contracts, which at the time increased their short position to 39,953 contracts. Managed money was sellers of 6,239 contracts of Chicago wheat, which at the time, increased their short position to 51,546 contracts. In KC, managed money sold 4,277 contracts, which at the time, increased their short position to 29,375 contracts. In Mpls, managed money sold 7,578 contracts, which, at the time, increased their short position to 30,002 contracts.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>A western Australian grain group raised their wheat production forecast across the region by 420 TMT up to 10.33 MMT. They cited good yields seen so far in early harvest. Total Aussie wheat production is expected to be around 31.8 MMT. Barley production in the region was raised 200 TMT up to 4.52 MMT and canola production was raised 230 TMT up to 2.59 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>France AgriMer weekly crop report showed the country's Winter wheat planting progress (soft wheat crop) moving up to 90% complete (78% last week). Conditions are said to be 88% G&E, which compares to 83% G&E this time last year. The report showed the durum crop at 52% planted, up from 32 pct the week prior. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The BAGE weekly crop report showed the 24/25 Argentine wheat harvest at 29.3% complete of the 18.6 MMT of wheat expected. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On Thursday, Taiwan Flour Millers bought 80 TMT of different varieties of US milling wheat. The purchase was broken down in two consignments. The first shipment, of which freight was just under $41/mt across the board, included 23,525 mt Dark Northern Spring bought at $308.06/mt FOB, 10,805 mt of HRW bought at $267.12/mt FOB and 5,670 mt of soft white bought at $236.62/mt FOB. The second shipment, of which freight was $42.40/mt across the board, included 24,315 mt of Dark Northern Spring bought at $306.48/mt FOB, 10,405 mt of HRW bought at $262.09/mt FOB and 5,280 mt soft white bought at $237.42/mt FOB.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On Wednesday, Algeria purchased between 160 and 180 TMT of durum wheat, with Canada looking to have been a main supplier. Prices were said to avg around $348/mt C&F for Panamax size cargoes and $360/mt C&F for smaller Handymax size cargoes. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan passed on all eight offers and did not make a purchase in their tender for 120 TMT opt origin milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Nov 25 Bangladesh is in for 50 TMT of milling wheat. They have several open tenders, including one from last week, where the lowest offer was $292.14/mt (probably Russian origin), with other offers ranging from $295.38/mt to $304.32/mt C&F for opt origins. No purchase has been finalized and may take considerable time before purchases can be confirmed. We are still awaiting results from a prior tender in which offers ranged from $301.88/mt up to $306.75/mt C&F.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Nov 26 Jordan is back in for 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>