Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, corn futures were mixed, finishing steady to one cent lower by the morning pause. Russian provocations (a non-nuclear ICBM fired at Ukraine?) bid the market up slightly in the middle of the night, but the enthusiasm did not last. The weekly export sales report arrived near trade expectations. New corn sales booked for the current 24/25 year were 1,494,600 metric tons.....
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, corn futures were mixed, finishing steady to one cent lower by the morning pause. Russian provocations (a non-nuclear ICBM fired at Ukraine?) bid the market up slightly in the middle of the night, but the enthusiasm did not last. The weekly export sales report arrived near trade expectations. New corn sales booked for the current 24/25 year were 1,494,600 metric tons (mt), topping last week but lagging the aggressive pace seen when futures briefly dipped below $4 CZ. Mexico was responsible for over one-half the sales, with small odd lots sprinkled elsewhere. Sold/shipped for 24/25 now stands 31.4 million mt (mmt), meaningfully better than the prior year’s early pace of 22.5 mmt. There were no 8 AM sales booked for corn, but South Korean buyers were each in for a cargo of optional origin bushels, paying $238.86/mt. Likely U.S. by our reckoning? Other influences remain muted; no weather story yet, but South America will be watched carefully in coming weeks. U.S. weather is turning seasonably chillier. Futures appear to be trying to see if they have enough mustard to go after the Sept-Nov ‘double top’ highs?<br> <br>Choppy and two-sided trade continues for corn. The market was able to overcome an easier start and some notable intraday headwinds, closing out Wednesday with 1-3 cent gains. Funds probably added a few lots, taking their net length in corn up to around 110,000 delta-adjusted contracts. Cash trade was mostly steady. The weekly EIA played-out near our expectations for ethanol. Ethanol production slipped only -0.3% off record-high levels; the 1.110 mil bbl/day rate would utilize just under 5.85 billion bushels of corn over a marketing year. Blender demand was a little weaker than we expected, falling -2%. Exports were unchanged at the prior week’s lofty levels (144k bbl/day vs. 78k last year). Given the dip in blender interest, stocks were able to rebuild, rising +2.4% to 22.56 million barrels (948 million gallons). Ethanol futures did not appear to like the report, falling 2 c/gal; the crush has retraced some of the gains seen over the past two weeks. We estimate an average Midwest ethanol plant is earning 5 c/gal profits today, net of all costs. The USDA’s monthly milk production report was +0.4% yr/yr in October, mostly on small herd expansion (up +0.1% yr/yr, +0.2% mo/mo).<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**USDA Corn 24/25 Export Sales Net (11/14): 1,494,600 mt; 25/26 Net: NONE mt; expected 1.0-2.2 mln<br> <br>**USDA Sorghum (Total) 24/25 Export Sales Net (11/14): 121,100 mt; 25/26 Net: NONE mt<br> <br> <br> <br>-- In a privately negotiated deal Thursday, Major Feedmill Group of South Korea, bought between 65,000 and 70,000 mt of Corn. The grain is optionally from either South America, or the United States. They reportedly paid $238.86/mt cf.<br> <br>-- Nonghyup Feed, according to trade sources, purchased around 66,000 mt of US or South American Corn in a privately negotiated deal. They reportedly paid $238.86/mt cf. The corn is for delivery by Feb 15th.<br> <br>-- On Thursday, traders reported around 60,000 mt of feed Barley was purchased by Iran's state-run feed importer, they had been seeking up to 120,000 mt. The grain is expected from either Russia or Kazakhstan. Prices paid were unclear.<br> <br>-- On Thursday, Jordan's state grain buyer set November 27th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed Barley. The grain is for shipment between Jan 1 through Feb 28.<br> <br>-- International Grains Council on Thursday raised their 24/25 global Corn production forecast to 1.225 bln mt from 1.224 bln mt in the previous outlook<br><br><strong>[Table] Cattle On Feed Industry Estimates for November 22, 2024 report </strong>(expected release at 2 pm CT)<br><table border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Average Estimate</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Previous Report</u></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>On Feed November 1</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Placements during Oct</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">104%</td><td valign=\"top\">98%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Marketings in Oct</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">105%</td><td valign=\"top\">102%</td></tr></tbody></table> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: South Korean state run fishery on Monday (11/18) announced November 22nd as the offer deadline in a tender seeking 40,000 mt of US Rice. The rice is for shipment for delivery between Apr 1, 2025 to Nov 30th, 2025.<br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Thursday are trading +1.00 euro higher at 213.00 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian January corn futures on Thursday traded -3 yuan lower ending at 2,196 yuan/mt<br><br>KJ</div>