Morning Soybean Update & Commentary: Weekly Bean shipments hit a marketing year high.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">USDA Weekly Export Sales:<br id=\"isPasted\"><span style=\"\"> </span>Est. (combined)<span style=\"\"> </span>Actual (old and new crop)<br>Corn<span style=\"\"> </span>1.0-2.2 mmt<span style=\"\"> </span>1.495<br>Wheat<span style=\"\"> </span>250-650 tmt<span style=\"\"> </span>550<br>Beans<span style=\"\"> </span>1.0-1.5 mmt<span style=\"\"> </span>1.861<br>Meal<span style=\"\"> </span>200-500 tmt<span style=\"\"> </span>275 and 1<br>Oil<span style=\"\"> </span>5-30 tmt<span style=\"\"> </span>22<br><br>Overnight grain markets were mixed with a two-sided choppy trade. January beans are a couple of ticks higher heading into the break while trading just above the key support at the contract lows. The bull spreads are firm with the nearby Jan-March spread into a new high for its move at an 8 cent carry. The spread strength reflects firm domestic basis from strong upfront demand from both the exporter and processer while harvest is in the rear view mirror. Flat price strength remains limited due to heavy supply side balance sheets domestically and, as projected with increasing confidence, globally. Weekly export sales were solid all-around led by soybeans, which exceeded their range of expectations at 1.861 mmt including a marketing year high in shipments. At 8 am, the USDA reported private sales of 198 tmt of beans to China, 135 tmt of beasn to unknown, and 133 tmt of meal to the Philippines. <br><br>The outside markets feature a firmer energy trade with crude oil trading $1.30/barrel higher and natural gas surging another 5.5% to the topside. In the latest war news, Russia launched an ICBM into Ukraine following the Biden administration’s go-ahead for Ukraine to attack with US and British supplied long range missiles into Russian territory. <br><br>In the product trade, bean oil is trading steady to slightly higher with meal off by $1 to $1.5 as the oil share spread looks to bounce back from a new low for the month. Global veg oils continue to trade weaker in palm oil, rapeseed, and canola futures. Board crush margins continue to struggle, off by another 3 cents to $1.20/bushel. <br><br>Old crop soybean sales of 1.861 mmt were up 20% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (1.197, including .611 switched from unknown and decreases of .014), Mexico (.169, including decreases of .070), the Netherlands (.143, including .120 from unknown), Germany (.132), and Indonesia (.097 from unknown), were offset by reductions for unknown (.097), Israel (.055), Italy (.005). Exports of 2.448 --a marketing-year high--were up 5% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (1.508), the Netherlands (.143), Germany (.132), Indonesia (.101), and Taiwan (.100).<br><br>Marketing year to date, soybean sales plus shipments total 31.584 (1.160 bb) which is 9% higher than last year’s pace at this time. Total commitments represent 64% of the USDA’s project total for the year compared to the 5 year average for this date of 67%. China holds 4.2 mmt in open bean commitments on the books compared to 5.2 mmt this time last year, exports to China stand at 10.5 mmt compared to 10.8 mmt a year ago.<br><br> <br> <br><br>Old crop meal sales of 275 tmt were down 9% from the previous week, but up 3% from the prior 4-week average. Old crop oil sales of 22 tmt were up 33% from the previous week, but down 48% from the prior 4-week average. <br><br>The new crop bean/corn ratio dropped to a new low at 2.30% where we met the first downside PriceCount objective. The domestic balance sheets are calling for less bean acres and more corn and while still way early, it will be interesting to see if this relationship can ultimately extend to a 2nd or possibly a 3rd count to achieve that. <br><br> <br><br>December options expire tomorrow. Next week we have Thanksgiving holiday followed by first notice on December futures the next day on Friday the 29th. That means longs will need to be out or rolled by Wednesday's close to avoid delivery risk so we could see some volatility in the markets around this delivery cycle. There are currently 114 deliverable corn receipts registered with the exchange, zero srw, 5 hrw, 369 bean oil, and 76 meal. While beans are not part of the Dec delivery cycle, Cargill cancelled 22 receipts overnight leaving a total of 445 open<br><br>In the news:<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Indonesian palm oil association Thursday reported the country's September palm oil stockpiles rose to 3.02 mln mt at the end of the month, up +23% over the previous month's stockpiles. However, the group noted palm oil exports fell by 30% to 1.86 mln mt in September. They noted top buyers, China and India, pulled back on their purchases by more than a third.<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Indonesian palm oil association Thursday reported the country's September palm oil production was 4.02 mln mt.<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Market sources suggest that the export duty on sunflower oil from Russia may increase by 200% in December compared with November, and by another 50% in January compared with December, amid a steady increase in prices for vegetable oils, which supports sunflower oil prices.<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Thursday are trading -1.75 euros lower at 529.75 euros/mt<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Dalian January soybean futures on Thursday traded -2 yuan lower ending at 3,887 yuan/mt; January soymeal fell -16 yuan ending at 2,924 yuan/mt<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>On Thursday, Dalian January vegoils traded sharply lower, soyoil fell -86 yuan ending at 8,142 yuan/mt, palm oil dropped -252 yuan ending at 9,696 yuan/mt<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Malaysian February crude palm oil futures on Thursday fell -46 ringgit ending at 4,825 ringgit/mt<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>On Thursday, Malaysian Jan/Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded -$7.50/mt lower ending at $1,062.50/mt and $1,067.50/mt, respectively<br>•<span style=\"\"> </span>Outside markets. Crude Oil +$1.41 ; Gold +$17.00 ; Silver +10.5c ; US $ index +6 pts<br><br><br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location <span style=\"\"> </span>Spot <br>US Gulf <span style=\"\"> </span>steady +92 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA <span style=\"\"> </span>steady -5f<br>Mankato, MN <span style=\"\"> </span>steady -5f <br>Decatur, IL <span style=\"\"> </span>steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN <span style=\"\"> </span>steady opt price f <br>Columbus, OH <span style=\"\"> </span>up 5 to -5f <br><br><br></div>