November 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><pre id=\"isPasted\" style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; overflow-wrap: break-word; \">November 2024
Note: Survey responses were collected from November 11 to November 18.
Manufacturing activity in the region softened overall, according to the firms
responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s
indicator for current general activity turned negative, while the indexes for
new orders and shipments declined but remained positive. The employment index
turned positive, suggesting an increase in employment overall. Both price
indexes indicate overall increases in prices and remain near their long-run
averages. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, with
growth expectations more widespread this month.
Most Current Indicators Soften
The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 10.3 to -5.5, its
second negative reading since January. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported
increases in general activity this month (down from 24 percent last month),
while 23 percent reported decreases (up from 14 percent); 58 percent reported no
change (little changed from last month). The indexes for new orders and
shipments also declined but remained positive: The new orders index decreased 5
points to 8.9, and the shipments index declined 3 points to 4.5.
The firms reported an increase in employment, on balance, after reporting mostly
steady employment last month. The employment index returned to positive
territory, rising to 8.6. More than two-thirds of the firms reported no change
in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting increases
(17 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (9 percent). The average
workweek index jumped 29 points to 17.4, its highest level since April 2022.
Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases
Both price indexes declined for the second consecutive month but remained
positive. The prices paid index declined 3 points to 26.6. Nearly 27 percent of
the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 67
percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell
4 points to 14.3. Over 15 percent of the firms reported increases in prices
received for their own goods, 1 percent reported decreases, and 76 percent
reported no change.
Firms Expect Higher Increases in Own Prices
In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes
in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four
quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year,
the firms’ median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, up
slightly from 2.8 percent when this question was last asked in August. The firms
reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past
year, unchanged from last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation
costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.4 percent over the
next four quarters, down slightly from 3.5 percent in August. The firms’ median
forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was
also unchanged at 3.0 percent.
Most Future Indicators Rise
The diffusion index for future general activity jumped from 36.7 to 56.6 in
November, its highest level since June 2021. The future new orders and shipments
indexes rose to 66.2 and 52.1, respectively. Both indexes also reached their
highest levels in over three years. The future prices paid index rose from 47.3
to 63.7, its highest level since April 2022. The future prices received index
increased 9 points to 48.5. Expectations for overall increases in employment
over the next six months were positive and more widespread, as the future
employment index rose from 27.3 to 34.2.
Summary
Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest softer
regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity
fell into negative territory, and the new orders and shipments indexes also
declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in
employment, and the price indexes were near their long-run averages. The
survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest more widespread
expectations for growth over the next six months.
Special Questions (November 2024)
Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following:
Current Previous
(Aug. 2024)
For your firm:
Forecast for next year (2024Q4-2025Q4)
1. Prices your firm will receive (for its
own goods and services sold). 3.0 2.8
2. Compensation your firm will pay per
employee (for wages and benefits). 3.4 3.5
Last year's price change (2023Q4-2024Q4)
3. Prices your firm did receive (for its
own goods and services sold) over the last
year. 3.0 3.0
For U.S. consumers:
4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and
services over the next year. 3.0 3.0
5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods
and services over the next 10 years
(2024-2033). 3.0 3.0
The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes).
For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change.
Summary of Returns
November 2024
November vs. October Six Months from Now
vs. November
Prev. Prev.
Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff.
Index Index Index Index
General Business 10.3 17.6 58.2 23.1 -5.5 36.7 67.4 11.0 10.8 56.6
Conditions
New Orders 14.2 26.5 51.0 17.6 8.9 40.1 72.7 13.2 6.5 66.2
Shipments 7.4 23.9 50.1 19.3 4.5 45.8 60.6 22.4 8.5 52.1
Unfilled Orders -1.5 23.2 55.8 16.4 6.8 26.1 34.4 54.1 5.6 28.8
Delivery Times 10.2 6.6 79.9 8.7 -2.1 11.1 14.9 72.8 4.8 10.1
Inventories 0.5 15.8 63.7 10.4 5.4 4.4 22.8 50.7 17.6 5.3
Prices Paid 29.7 26.6 67.0 0.0 26.6 47.3 63.7 31.5 0.0 63.7
Prices Received 17.9 15.4 76.4 1.1 14.3 40.0 48.5 48.5 0.0 48.5
Number of Emp. -2.2 17.1 67.4 8.5 8.6 27.3 34.2 59.5 0.0 34.2
Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -11.8 19.1 73.9 1.7 17.4 25.0 18.0 73.4 1.1 16.9
Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 23.5 24.9 73.1 0.0 24.9
Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating
an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.
(2) All data are seasonally adjusted.
(3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding,
omission by respondents, or both.
(4) Survey results reflect data received through November 18, 2024.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Released: November 21, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET.</pre></div>