Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: 8 am export sales window open for soybeans today.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets traded weaker led by the soy complex and bean oil specifically as it has broken down below its November lows on the charts while following a broader global veg oil flush to the downside. January beans are trading 8-9 cents lower heading into the break with the bull spreads also trading the defensively. The USDA reported timely private sales of 202 tmt of beans to China and 226 tmt of beans to unknown. <br> <br>Weather in the Southern Hemisphere remains mostly favorable. The production potential arrow for soybeans is pointed higher thanks to the abundance of moisture in the center to northern Brazilian crop areas. There is a minor caveat due to dryness across portions of Argentina and S Brazil. This will be watched closely, especially in a La Nina year, but the forecast promises timely relief a week out and fortunately temperatures have remained mild. At the moment, the USDA is forecasting combined production out of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina to rise by 29 mmt or 8.9% year over year to a record 231.2 mmt.<br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil is leading to the downside while meal is trading slightly weaker. The oil share spread is correcting to a two-week low. Board crush margins are holding steady at $1.30/bushel.<br> <br>Looking ahead at the schedule – we’ll get weekly export sales tomorrow and December options expire on Friday. Next week we have Thanksgiving holiday followed by first notice on December futures the next day on Friday the 29<sup>th</sup>. That means longs will need to be out or rolled by Wednesday's close to avoid delivery risk so we could see some volatility in the markets around this delivery cycle. There are currently 114 deliverable corn receipts registered with the exchange, zero srw, 5 hrw, 369 bean oil, and 76 meal. While beans are not part of the Dec delivery cycle, Cargill cancelled 22 receipts overnight leaving a total of 445 open. <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Chinese customs data released Wednesday placed October 2024 Soybean imports at 541,434 mt, up from the year ago month's 228,253 mt. October marked the seventh straight month of growth of soy imports. China also imported 5.53 mln mt of Brazil soy, and 1.36 mln mt of Argentina soy in October.</li><li>AmSpec Agri on Wednesday estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Nov 1-20 period at 963,302 mt that's below their Oct 1-20 estimate at 976,822 mt.</li><li>Intertek on Wednesday estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Nov 1-20 period at 981,687 mt, that's off -5.3% from the Oct 1-20 estimate at 1.036 mln mt.</li><li>Argentina's chief of staff said the government will offer 30 year concession in a bid to privatize its stretch of the Paraguay-Parana waterway. They will seek offers via a national and international tender. They hope to significantly upgrade its top trade route with new new ship satellite and radar systems.</li><li>Traders familiar with South American crop scout Cordonnier, said he raised his Brazilian soybean crop forecast by +1 mln mt to 166 mln mt, noting a neutral-to-higher bias. The crop scout expressed slight concern that dryness is starting to creep into far southern areas. For Argentina, Cordonnier kept his crop forecast at 57 mln mt for soybeans and a neutral bias.</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading -5.75 euros lower at 535.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian January soybean futures on Wednesday traded -5 yuan lower ending at 3,889 yuan/mt; January soymeal fell -22 yuan ending at 2,940 yuan/mt</li><li>On Wednesday, Dalian January vegoil futures traded higher, palm oil rose +72 yuan ending at 9,948 yuan/mt, soyoil gained +40 yuan ending at 8,228 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian February crude palm oil futures on Wednesday traded sharply lower, falling -107 ringgit ending at 4,817 ringgit/mt</li><li>On Wednesday, Malaysian Jan/Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded -$7.50/mt lower ending at $1,070.00/mt and $1,075.00/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil +37c ; Gold +60c ; Silver -27.2c ; US $ index +40 pts</li></ul> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf up 3 to +92 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5f <br>Mankato, MN steady -5f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN steady opt price f <br>Columbus, OH steady -10f </div>