Afternoon wheat: Early strength struggles to hold
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>For a second consecutive day, the headline story involved wheat. Despite wheat conditions improving more than expected in yesterday’s weekly crop progress report, the wheat market extended their Monday gains early in the session today, reaching double-digits higher before the rally stalled and futures set back. It looked to be more war risk premium being put into trade following Russia’s verbal response to the US gov’t’s decision that will allow Ukraine to use long-range US weapons. Ukraine wasted no time using these weapons, and Putin, feeling this is an increased threat by the US, signed a new nuclear doctrine that said, “the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response”.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Chicago Dec wheat saw mixed overnight price action, but trade firmed over the latter half of the evening and entered the morning break with modest gains. The market extended gains to around ten cents higher during the early part of the day, only to gradually give some of those gains back over the balance of the day. The market still finished a couple cents higher, but nine cents off its highs. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Dec KC wheat saw similar price action to Chicago in that overnight trade started mixed to lower, then firmed over the latter half of the evening and entered the morning break with modest gains. The only difference from Chicago during the day was the early rally did not carry as far as Chic. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>The Dec KC/Chicago spread saw slightly weaker price action during the night, but trade stayed in a narrow range. The opening thirty minutes of the day saw the spread lose four cents, only to quickly bounce back and firm through the morning, rallying seven cents. Late in the day saw the spread weaken a bit, but trade still finished with slight gains. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'><span style=\"text-decoration:none;\"> </span></span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>EU data shows that as of Nov 17, cumulative year-to-date EU soft wheat exports (marketing year started July 1) are 8.79 MMT. Meaning, EU wheat exports last week were 450 TMT. This time last year, total EU wheat exports were 12.66 MMT. Some countries (mainly France, Bulgaria and Ireland) continue to be slow in reporting and updating data (applies to all markets).</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister said the country's 2025 wheat harvest could reach as high as 25 MMT, which if achieved, would be 3 MMT larger than this past season. Prior to the war, Ukraine typically averaged between 25 and 28 MMT of yearly wheat production. Wheat planted acres in 2025 are expected to increase 400K hectares year over year to 5.0 mil hectares.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Turkey is expected to receive some much-needed rain and snow late this week into next week to ease long-term dryness and improve wheat establishment.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Brazil's Ag Minister said they are set to announce agriculture agreements with China tomorrow. The minister suggested the deals this week (besides grains), may include offal products from beef and pork. The ministry has also received a new list of meatpackers approved to export to China.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan passed on all eight offers and did not make a purchase in their tender for 120 TMT opt origin milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Nov 19, with offers valid through Nov 20, Algeria is in for a nominal 50 TMT of durum wheat. Shipment is sought in four periods: Jan 1-15, Jan 16-31, Feb 1-15 and Feb 16-28, so this could end up being a large purchase. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Nov 25 Bangladesh is in for 50 TMT of milling wheat. They have several open tenders, including one from last week, where the lowest offer was $292.14/mt (probably Russian origin), with other offers ranging from $295.38/mt to $304.32/mt C&F for opt origins. No purchase has been finalized and may take considerable time before purchases can be confirmed. We are still awaiting results from a prior tender in which offers ranged from $301.88/mt up to $306.75/mt C&F.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>