Afternoon Corn: A mixed day of trade with a slightly easier close
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>The day was a mixed one for corn. Futures were firm for most of the early going but turned decisively lower around the noon hour. The market would settle 1-2 cents lower. Funds may have slipped out of a few longs today, but overall they remain net long roughly 100,000 delta-adjusted corn. Cash trade was steady at the Gulf but more firm than not on the interior.<br> <br>It was another quiet news day overall. Markets remained tense early amid Black Sea war escalation anxiety, but this influence ebbed as the day unfolded. The stock market was the most identifiable barometer of this, reversing early -1% losses to trade higher into the afternoon. The US Dollar and energy were both flat. There were no 8 AM flashes of any kind today, and there were no noteworthy corn export news headlines.<br> <br>Weather also remains mostly a non-event, though we are entering the time of year where South America moves higher on the priority watch list. Overall, crop prospects there are viewed steady or improving. Dryness in portions of Argentina and Southern Brazil will be watched closely in a La Nina year, but for now, the forecast promises relief a week out. Any remaining U.S. harvest will have a slow go in the short-term, but the USDA did not bother to report progress this week (corn was 95% harvested at the start of last week).<br> <br>The report-du-jour tomorrow is the weekly EIA. We expect ethanol production to hold about steady near record-high levels. Demand is likely to improve wk/wk, but that should not prevent a modest ethanol stocks build of about +1% (perhaps more if in-transit stocks land). Ethanol set back a little today, but overall the crush has improved markedly over the last two weeks, swinging from small losses to 5-10 c/gal profits (net of all costs).<br> <br>Elsewhere, end-user markets were mostly a little easier, excepting cattle which had a strong day (Fats and Feeders both up $2). Milk production data is due out tomorrow afternoon. Cattle on Feed report is due Friday afternoon. Ahead of the COF report, the analyst poll from Bloomberg sees “On Feed” inventory near unchanged yr/yr with placements up +3.4% and marketings up +5.1%. EU customs data suggest the bloc’s corn imports moved up to 7.6 million metric tons, up from 7.1 last week and 6.83 last year.<br> <br>In the options, volatility was little changed. Early, nearly 3,000 Dec $4.30 Puts traded at just under 3 cents; these expire Friday. Later, Jan $4.30 Puts traded hands 1,675 times at 5 cents. Not sure if the two are connected? Calendar spreads eased back a little after a recent run higher. Corn gained on the beans but lost to the wheat. Eyeing the charts, futures have found meaningful resistance at $4.35 CZ ($4.50 CH). Initial support in the $4.20 area basis CZ ($4.30 CH) also held, so that appears to be our short-term range. Momentum indicators are positive on the weekly and are trying to turn back higher on the daily. The RSI is near-neutral, sitting in the mid 50’s. <br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>