Afternoon Soybeans: Supply side focus weighed on sentiment.

<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market struggled with a lower trade on a day where demand news was absent and Brazilian crop estimates dominated the headlines. &nbsp;January beans settled 11.25 cents lower which erased Monday&rsquo;s gains to the tick. &nbsp;The bull spreads initially were firm in the overnight action as the Jan-March spread traded out to a new high for its move to an 8.25 carry but the spread faltered in the day session and reversed for a lower settlement. &nbsp;Bean basis was firm to the west and steady/firm elsewhere. &nbsp;CIF bean bids at the Gulf also had a firmer tone. &nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>Weather in the Southern Hemisphere remains mostly favorable. &nbsp;The production potential arrow for soybeans is pointed higher to the abundance of moisture in the center to northern Brazilian crop areas but there is a minor caveat due to dryness across portions of Argentina and S Brazil. &nbsp;This will be watched closely, especially in a La Nina year, but the forecast promises timely relief a week out and fortunately temperatures have remained mild. &nbsp;At the moment, the USDA is forecasting combined production out of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina to rise by 29 mmt or 8.9% year over year to a record 231.2 mmt and nothing about current conditions or within the weather outlook suggests that number isn&rsquo;t attainable. &nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>In the product trade, oil and meal both had a lower trade. &nbsp;Bean oil is consolidating after the recent volatile swings in both directions off of government policy headlines. &nbsp;Meanwhile, meal snapped its modest two session streak of corrective gains and remains priced at a $25/mt+ FOB premium to cheaper Southern Hemisphere supply. &nbsp; The oil share spread is consolidating below recent highs at 43.7%. &nbsp;Board crush margins were steady at $1.30/bushel. &nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>Looking ahead at the schedule - December options expire on Friday. &nbsp;Next week we have Thanksgiving holiday followed by first notice on December futures the next day on Friday the 29<sup>th</sup>. &nbsp;That means longs will need to be out or rolled by Wednesday&#39;s close to avoid delivery risk so we could see some volatility in the markets around this delivery cycle. &nbsp;There are currently 114 deliverable corn receipts registered with the exchange, zero srw, 5 hrw, 369 bean oil, and 76 meal.<br>&nbsp;<br>Elsewhere in the news,&nbsp;Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 1 MMT to 166 MMT noting a neutral to higher bias. &nbsp;The only concern is dryness starting to creep into far southern areas. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop peg at 125 MMT with a neutral bias. For Argentina, Cordonnier kept his crop forecasts at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn with a neutral bias toward both.<br>&nbsp;<br>Brazil&#39;s ABIOVE projected 2024/25 soybean production will reach 167.7 mln mt, if realized that would be +9.4% over the previous season&#39;s 153.3 mln mt. &nbsp;Exports are forecast to reach 104.0 mln mt, that is well above the 98.3 mln mt of exports expected in the current marketing year. &nbsp;Crush is forecast to reach 57.0 mln mt, that compares with the previous 54.5 mln mt crush.<br>&nbsp;<br>Brazil soybean exports in November are projected to reached 2.80 mmt vs. 2.81 mmt previously according to Anec. &nbsp;Meal exports 1.98 mmt vs. 1.87 mmt. &nbsp;Corn exports 5.57 mmt vs. 5.38 mmt.&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>Malaysia&#39;s government will raise its December crude palm oil export tax to 10% from the current 8%.&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>Ukrainian Ag&nbsp;Min says winter wheat plantings could increase to 5 million hectares for next year&rsquo;s harvest from 4.6 million for this year. That may increase production to 25 MMT from 22 MMT this year. Corn plantings next spring are expected to increase 500,000 hectares to 4.4 million hectares, while soybean area will decline. The area seeded to sunflowers is expected to hold around 5.5 million hectares in 2025.<br>&nbsp;<br>Soybean Basis:&nbsp;<br>Location &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;Spot&nbsp;<br>US Gulf &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;up 1 to +89&nbsp;<br>Cedar Rapids, IA &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;up 10 to -5f&nbsp;<br>Mankato, MN &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;steady -5f&nbsp;<br>Decatur, IL &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;steady +5f&nbsp;<br>Decatur, IN &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;steady opt price f&nbsp;<br>Columbus, OH &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; steady -10f&nbsp;</div>