Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Black Sea tensions apparent amid a quiet news day
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the markets held mixed feature; corn ended the night session near unchanged, while soybeans were five cents lower. Soy Oil was slightly lower and Meal slightly better. Overall, it is another very quiet news day to start, though markets still feel tense amid recent Black Sea war escalation. Weather remains mostly a non-event, though we are entering the time of the year where South America moves higher on the priority watch list. Overall, crop prospects there are neutral to improving? Dryness in portions of Argentina and S Brazil will be watched closely in a La Nina year, but for now, the forecast promises relief a week out. Brazil’s soybean planting advanced to 80% complete, according to AgRural, well ahead of 68% on that date last year. A more rapid pace is favorable for safrinha corn planting later, too. There was a little good news yesterday from the outgoing Biden administration; they plan to finalize 45z rules governing tax credits for clean fuels such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) before departing. Ethanol industry profitability has improved in recent days; we see an average Midwest plant earning 10 c/gal profits including all costs, versus small losses just two weeks prior. There were no 8 AM sales today, though on Monday we did see the rare ‘crush trifecta’; a soybean, oil, and meal flash each.<br><br>“Red to green” trade Monday across most of the ag markets, as a softer start quickly gave way to firmer trade throughout the day. Old crop corn futures finished 3-5 cents higher, while later-dated new crop positions ended only fractionally better. January beans gained 11 cents, finishing 20 cents off the morning low. In the product trade, oil and meal both settled modestly higher. Bull spreads worked in both corn and soy. Funds are now net long corn and bean oil, but are still slightly short meal and beans. Weekly grain inspections were somewhat mixed. For the week ended 11/14, U.S. exporters shipped 820,608 metric tons (mt) of corn, better than the prior week’s 797k, and the prior year’s 601k mt. Soybean inspections downshifted slightly to 2,165,075 metric tons versus 2.36 mmt last year, but easily topped 1.63 mmt last year. Marketing year to date, corn inspections total 357 million bushels (mb) which is about 32% ahead of last year's pace of 271 mb. Weekly corn inspections need to average about 48 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 2.325 bb. Bean inspections total 642 mb which 9.2% ahead of last year's pace of 588 mb. Weekly bean inspections need to average 29 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 1.825 bb. China bean loadings remain red hot: they loaded out 1 soybean cargo off the Atlantic coast, 14 cargoes of beans and 1 sorghum from the Gulf, and another 10 bean boats off the PNW this week.<br><br>QT News - Top News:<br>-- Algeria's state grain buyer on Tuesday announced a snap tender to close today, Tues Nov 19th, seeking up to 240,000 mt of Argentine or Brazil origin Corn. The grain is for shipment in the first half of December. Today's tender announcement indicates that they did not make any purchase at this past Friday's tender. They reportedly had passed on all offers at their Nov 13th tender too.<br>-- Malaysia's government will raise its December crude palm oil export tax to 10% from the current 8%. They will also raise their reference price to 4,471.39 ringgit/mt from November's 3,949.73 ringgit/mt<br>-- Over the January-October period Ukraine exports via Romania's Constanta Port were 5.66 mln mt, off -52% from the year earlier period.<br>-- Ukraine deputy ag minister on Tuesday said the country's 2025 corn acres will likely increase by 500,000 hectares, mostly as the expense of less soybean acres<br>-- USDA weekly crop progress report: Sorghum harvest progress at 95% complete compared to last week's 91% and year ago week 95%<br>-- USDA weekly crop progress report: Cotton harvest progress at 77% complete compared to last week's 71% and year ago week 74%<br>-- Brazil's Ag Minister on Monday said they're set to announce agriculture agreements with China on Wednesday this week. The minister suggested the deals this week, may include offal products from beef and pork. The ministry has also received a new list of meatpackers approved to export to China.<br> <br>Pending Tenders:<br>-- Pending Tender: Trade sources on Monday (11/18) reported at least 120,000 mt of feed Barley is sought by Iran's state run animal feed importer. Offers are due Tuesday, Nov 19th. Origins accepted include the Black Sea region, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the Ukraine. Shipment is expected from December 2024 through January 2025.<br>-- Pending Tender: Jordan's state grain buyer on Thursday (11/14) announced they're seeking 120,000 mt of feed grade Barley in a tender to close on November 20th. The grain is for shipment between Jan 1 through Feb 28th, depending on origin.<br>-- Pending Tender: South Korean state run fishery on Monday (11/18) announced November 22nd as the offer deadline in a tender seeking 40,000 mt of US Rice. The rice is for shipment for delivery between Apr 1, 2025 to Nov 30th, 2025.<br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Tuesday are trading -0.50 euro lower at 211.75 euros/mt<br>-- Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Tuesday are trading +1.25 euros higher at 544.25 euros/mt<br>-- Dalian January soybean futures on Tuesday traded +24 yuan higher ending at 3,894 yuan/mt; January soymeal rose +20 yuan ending at 2,962 yuan/mt<br>-- On Tuesday, Dalian January vegoil futures traded lower, soyoil lost -40 yuan ending at 8,188 yuan/mt, palm oil dropped -116 yuan ending at 9,876 yuan/mt<br>-- Dalian January corn futures on Tuesday traded +5 yuan higher ending at 2,206 yuan/mt<br>-- Malaysian February crude palm oil futures on Tuesday traded +23 ringgit higher ending at 4,922 ringgit/mt<br>-- On Tuesday, Malaysian Jan/Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded +$7.50/mt higher ending at $1,077.50/mt and $1,082.50/mt, respectively</span></div><br><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">KJ</span></div>