Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: USDA reports private sales of beans, meal, and oil - the crush trifecta.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets had a mixed trade with corn and soybeans leaning weaker and the markets firmer heading into the morning break. January soybeans are trading 8 cents lower while working on a potential second consecutive inside day with prices consolidating just above contract lows for a moment. New crop November futures are trading into new contract lows. The bull spreads are firm with the Jan-March spread pushing out into a new high for the move. <br> <br>Fresh fundamental inputs are lacking. Soybean demand remains strong up front but export sales are on a clock seasonally, with possible trade war limitations looming around the corner too. The USDA announced a private sale of 261 tmt of beans to Mexico, 135 tmt of meal to the Philippines, and 30 tmt of bean oil to India – the crush trifecta. Domestic crush continues its record breaking trajectory but uncertainty over the future of government subsidies keeps market participants on edge. Weather in the Southern Hemisphere remains mostly favorable. Dryness in portions of Argentina and S Brazil will be watched closely in a La Nina year but the forecast promises relief a week out. <br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil is back under pressure but is respecting last week’s lows for now. Media reports say President Biden is seeking to finalize rules on sustainable aviation fuel and other cleaner fuel tax credits set to begin in 2025. The global veg oil influence is mixed to start the day while the energy trade is slightly firmer. Soybean meal is trading weaker also, unable to benefit from the oil share spreading. Board crush margins are off by a penny to $1.36/bushel. <br> <br>The COT report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 11/12 had +87.9k corn (net long 109.9k, -14.5k srw (net short 45.3k), -11.0k hrw (net short 25.0k), +15.5k beans (net long 54.5k), -19.5k meal (net short 27.6k), and +11.4k oil (net long 75.1k). <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Indonesian officials say the government will undertake a periodic policy review to examine how it sets palm oil export levies. The review is a means to ensure palm oil competitiveness against other vegoils.</li><li>AgRural analysts on Monday estimated 80% of Brazil's 24/25 soybean crop has been planted so far</li><li>On Monday, the Dutch government confirmed its first bird flu outbreak in nearly a year, adding that 23,000 birds were culled on a farm in central Netherlands.</li><li>A commercial farm in southwestern Britain was confirmed with a strain of highly pathogenic bird flu this weekend, as a result the birds will be culled, and a quarantine area will be placed around the farm for monitoring.</li><li>Friday's NOPA October 2024 US Soybean Crush: 199.959 million bushels; expected 196.8 mln bu.; prior month 177.32 mln bu</li><li>Friday's NOPA October 2024 US Soyoil Stocks: 1.069 billion lbs; expected 1.090 bln lbs; prior month 1.066 billion lbs</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Monday are trading +1.75 euros higher at 541.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian January rapeseed futures on Monday traded -24 yuan lower ending at 3,870 yuan/mt; January soymeal fell -16 yuan ending at 2,942 yuan/mt</li><li>Dalian January vegoils traded mixed, palm oil rose +6 yuan ending at 9,992 yuan/mt, soyoil fell -58 yuan ending at 8,228 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian February crude palm oil futures on Monday traded -153 ringgit lower finishing at 4,900 ringgit/mt</li><li>On Monday, Malaysian Jan/Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded -$25/mt lower ending at $1,160.00/mt and $1,165.00/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil +42c ; Gold +$25.30 ; Silver +36.8c ; US $ index +8 pts</li></ul> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf up 1 to +88 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f <br>Mankato, MN steady -5f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN up 2 to opt price f <br>Columbus, OH steady -10f <br> </div>