Afternoon wheat: Another quietly, mixed day
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago Dec wheat futures once again were unable to hold slight overnight gains, with trade slipping lower late morning today before turning two-sided late in the day and ultimately finishing basically flat. The net result to today’s limited trade was an inside day on the chart, meaning the near-term outlook does not change. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Dec KC wheat was a bit more volatile than Chicago, but the outcome was very similar. Overnight gains in KC were stronger than Chic, but when the market sold off mid-morning, the break was a little deeper (slipped to four lower). HRW futures did firm a little late, but the market still posted slight losses on the day. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The Dec KC/Chicago spread was bid overnight and had a firm start to the day, but those early gains were not very lasting as after the opening hour the spread steadily weakened over the balance of the session. The spread eventually finished the day slightly weaker, thus giving back Tuesday’s gains. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chinese customs data shows August wheat imports at 410 TMT. That is off 50.9% from the year ago month. However, cumulative year-to-date wheat imports have totaled 10.49 MMT, which is up almost 10% from the year earlier period.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>France AgriMer lowered their 24/25 French soft wheat export forecast outside the EU almost in half, from 7.5 MMT down to 4 MMT, which would be a 61% reduction from last year’s exports outside the EU. Exports within the EU were only lowered 500 TMT down to 6 MMT. The net result was wheat ending stocks in the 24/25 marketing year being lowered 300 TMT down to 2.74 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>France AgriMer also reported final quality results from this season's wheat harvest. Only 28% of the crop had test weights above the 76 kg/hectoliter threshold, which is well below the five-year avg at 75% of the crop. They attributed the lack of sun during the grain filling stage. They added 99% of the crop had Hagberg falling numbers above 240 seconds, up from the long term avg of 87%. Final quality results showed 41% of the crop had avg protein content above 11.5%. The five-year avg is 58% of the crop. The nationwide protein content avg was 11.4% this year. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>SovEcon lowered their overall 2024 Russian grain production forecast 4 MMT down to 124.4 MMT. Yesterday, the group raised its wheat production forecast 400 TMT up to 82.9 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister said they are maintaining 2025 winter wheat sowing forecast between 4.5 to 5.0 mil hectares (4.7 mil hectares planted last year). Drought has affected almost all growing regions. The ministry is maintaining hope that weather will turn wetter in the LH Sept and FH Oct. As of Monday, farmers had sown 340,300 hectares of winter wheat compared to 514,800 hectares planted around this time last year.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Ukraine’s Ag Minister is thought to have said the country's exportable grain surplus for the 2024/25 marketing year is 43.2 MMT, of which 8.76 MMT has already been shipped. The Ministry said an additional 11.5 MMT of wheat, 19.2 MMT of corn and 1.5 MMT of barley could be exported through June 2025.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Food industry officials from India say its gov’t needs to release gov’t held wheat stocks, adding the curbs on traders and processors announced in the recent past are not enough to lower wheat prices during the festival season.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Egypt’s Supply Ministry said the country's wheat reserves are sufficient for 6 months coverage.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\"font-size:11pt;color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan bought 60 TMT of opt origin wheat, paying $265.95/mt C&F for LH Dec ship. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan announced another 120 TMT opt origin milling wheat tender that closes next week.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Sept 19 Japan is in with a regular tender seeking 123,012 mt of Aussie, Canadian and US wheat. The total includes 24,820 mt of Aussie white, 31,795 mt of Canadian red, 34,117 mt of US white, and 32,280 mt of US HRW.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Sept 19 Tunisia is in for 125 TMT of opt origin milling wheat and 100 TMT of opt origin durum wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>