Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Final yield uncertainty and hedge selling have contributed to the recent choppiness in flat price trade.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets were firmer led by the soybean market. November beans are up by a dime heading into the break where the chart is pushing up into the upper end of this month’s trading range. The bull spreads are firming with the nearby Nov-Jan spread looking to follow through on yesterday’s upside reversal after testing last month’s contract low. The news cycle remains quiet leaving the market to focus on weather and harvest progress where final yield uncertainty and hedge selling have contributed to the recent choppiness in flat price trade.<br> <br>The US forecast turns wet this weekend to the West of the Mississippi River with the system to move over the Eastern Midwest early next week, although with less rain as it breaks up. The rain will still be beneficial for some of the later planted bean crop but we are nearing the stage where it likely won’t matter very much. The toll of the warm and dry finish to the bean crop won’t be known until we get deeper into harvest but history tells us that in the absence of moisture for pod fill, we likely missed out on attaining the top end national yield potential that seemed within our grasp 30 days ago.<br> <br>Today is Fed Day where it is expected that they will announce rate cuts by either .25 or .50 basis points this afternoon ahead of the grain close. The outside markets are quiet, featuring the energy markets trading easier following their recent recoveries off lows in crude oil and products; the dollar is trading .03 pts lower.<br> <br>In the product trade, meal and oil are both firmer with soybean oil making the more significant technical trade as its breaks the recent downtrend and looks to be stabilizing its slide. The global veg oil scene is firmer and adding tailwinds to the bean oil recovery which has also been supported by the NOPA crush report where inventories tightened to a 9-month low at the end of August. Oil is gaining on meal in the oil share spreading to start the day. Board crush margins are up 3 to $1.43/bushel which would represent a 9 day high if it holds.<br> <br>In the news:<br><ul><li>Egyptian Supply Ministry on Wednesday estimated the country's Wheat reserves are sufficient for 6 months coverage, and vegoil stockpiles are enough for 7.4 months coverage.</li><li>Argentina raised domestic prices for biodiesel and bioethanol, both mandatory for blending with fossil fuels. The economy ministry's energy department set the price of biodiesel for mandatory mixing with diesel at 984,865 Argentine pesos ($1,024.3) per metric ton, up from 965,554 pesos previously and raised the sugarcane-based bioethanol price to 657.416 pesos per liter from 644.525 pesos, and corn-based bioethanol to 602.545 pesos from 590.73 pesos per liter. The new prices will be effective "for operations to be carried out during September 2024</li></ul><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>India food industry executives say the country's 24/25 edible vegoil consumption will rise by +2% to +3% in spite of a hike to the import duty. They expected 24/25 palm oil imports in a range between 9 to 10 mln mt, sunflower oil imports at 3.0 mln mt, and soyoil imports around 3.0 mln mt.</li><li>On Wednesday, the Australian weather bureau said they believe La Nina conditions, if they develop, will be weak and short lived.</li><li>Brazil soy exports in September are projected at 5.83 mmt vs. 5.51 mmt estimated a week ago, according to Anec. Meal exports 2.02 mmt unchanged. Corn exports 6.63 mmt vs. 6.47 mmt.</li><li>Euronext Paris November rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading +4.00 euros higher at 467.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian January soybean futures on Wednesday traded -70 yuan lower ending at 4,235 yuan/mt; January soymeal rose +64 yuan ending at 3,121 yuan/mt</li><li>On Wednesday, Dalian January vegoil futures traded higher, soyoil rose +80 yuan ending at 7,772 yuan/mt, palm oil rose +30 yuan ending at 7,882 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian crude palm oil futures on Wednesday traded +112 ringgit higher ending at 3,848 ringgit/mt</li><li>On Wednesday, Malaysian Nov/Dec cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded +$32.50/mt higher ending at $962.50/mt and $967.50/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil -89c ; Gold +$11.40 ; Silver -1.9c ; US $ index -8 pts</li></ul><br> Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 2 to +63 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -40x <br>Mankato, MN steady -15x <br>Decatur, IL steady -20x <br>Decatur, IN steady -33x <br>Columbus, OH steady -30x </div>