AgCenter Cattle Market Report & Analysis
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-weight: bold;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">September 18, 202</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>4</strong></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-weight: bold;\">THE MARKETS</strong></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Packers are more likely to become active in the cash markets in advance of a COF report tomorrow. A few cattle sold in Iowa on Monday at $183-$184 — steady with last week. Overall show lists are down with both Nebraska and Kansas down, and Texas up. Supplies of cattle will continue to be tight and sellers will want to stem or narrow the losses at the feedlot level. Cattle owners are working their way into higher breakevens. The Federal Reserve Bank will meet today and is likely to drop interest rates between a quarter and a half point.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Cattle on feed numbers on September 1 are the low point for the year as the fall run begins and cattle off summer grass are placed into the nation’s feedyards. Many cattle will find their way onto pastures after weaning before being placed on feed in the spring but moisture and temperatures will determine the amount of winter grazing. The pool of replacement cattle will continue to decline.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The past month has improved margins at the beef plant and improving margins brings larger slaughter volumes — a healthy development. This past week’s slaughter was a surprising 620,000 up 76,000 over the holiday shortened week but down 11,000 head from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in decline. The cow slaughter remains well under last year. Beef production, however, continues strong in the face of smaller numbers because of heavier carcass weights.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-weight: bold;\">PRE-RELEASE COF REPORT</strong></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">On Feed Sep 1…………… 100.7% range 100.1%?101.3%<br style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px;\">Placed on Feed in Aug.. 98.5% range.. 93.5%?102.3%<br style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px;\">Marketed in Aug…………. 96.5% range.. 96.0%?97.5%</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock/live-cattle.html\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Cattle Futures.</a> Futures were strong in anticipation of higher cash prices. The weekly slaughter rates will be positive for cash markets requiring more slaughter inventory.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">B<a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">enchmarking</a>. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The <a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2700.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report</a> offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 913# up 5# from prior week and 33# heavier than last year. Carcass weights will be fundamental in determining total beef production. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .8% at 82.60%. This was 3% over last year.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls196.txt\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report </a>is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2480.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Forward Cattle Contracts</a>: Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. </span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Formula and Negotiated Grids. <a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">The Price and Distribution Report </a>delineates the various selling methods and net results. The <a href=\"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/Cattle_Contract_Library\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Cattle Contracts Report</a> details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.</span></p><div style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; display: flex; margin-bottom: 1.75em; flex-wrap: nowrap; align-items: center; gap: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><div style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; flex-grow: 0; min-width: 0px; word-break: break-word; overflow-wrap: break-word; margin: 0px; flex-basis: 50%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><iframe src=\"https://embeds.agcenter.com/cattlereportchart/choice_cutout\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 75vh; width: 551px; min-height: 55px; height: 55px; border: none;\"><span class=\"fr-mk\" style=\"display: none;\"> </span></iframe></span></div><div style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; flex-grow: 0; min-width: 0px; word-break: break-word; overflow-wrap: break-word; margin: 0px; flex-basis: 50%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><iframe src=\"https://embeds.agcenter.com/cattlereportchart/select_cutout\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 75vh; width: 551px; min-height: 55px; height: 55px; border: none;\"><span class=\"fr-mk\" style=\"display: none;\"> </span></iframe></span></div></div><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswbfrtl.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Beef Feature Activity Index.</a></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The story of the marketing for beef cuts has been the grind. The 90% grind has dominated the value of the cutout propelled by the reduction in the cow slaughter. More of the end meats have gone into the grind as consumers downgrade their beef cut buys.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lsddcbs.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">The Cutout</a>. Box prices were weak. Seasonally box prices reach a low in September then rally into year end. Exports have been especially strong considering the price of our beef. Assisting the demand from abroad has been the declining value of the dollar as interest rates are expected to move lower.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatu