Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was modestly weaker, finishing a couple cents lower by the morning pause. Grains are clearly breathing a sigh of relief as there were no major geopolitical happenings over the weekend. News flow overall is very quiet to start the week. The focus in the U.S. is increasingly on harvest, which is gradually expanding north. A continued warmer tilt to the weather......
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the corn market was modestly weaker, finishing a couple cents lower by the morning pause. Grains are clearly breathing a sigh of relief as there were no major geopolitical happenings over the weekend. News flow overall is very quiet to start the week. The focus in the U.S. is increasingly on harvest, which is gradually expanding north. A continued warmer tilt to the weather should help speed maturity, though we note there is some rain forecast in the 6-10 day outlook. Rain is a mixed ‘blessing’ at this point? Outside markets tilt a little positive; dollar easier, crude oil firmer, while stocks lean mixed. Chinese economic data remains a weak point in the outlook; the country’s sow herd was said 5% lower yr/yr, which can weigh on the country’s feed imports. There were no 8 AM sales (for corn), and no export headlines. The next major report on the horizon is the Sept 1 Grain Stocks, due in just over two weeks.<br> <br>Corn futures ended the week with some gusto, posting 6-7 cent gains up-front Friday and 3+ cents in later-dated positions. The weekly charts will record a seven cent gain; corn futures have now finished higher three consecutive weeks. Cash trade was steady/mixed heading into what should be an active harvest weekend. CFTC Commitment of Traders report after the close again offered some surprises. For the week ended Tuesday (9/10), Managed Money (funds) were net buyers of a much larger-than-expected 44,077 corn contracts. Commercial and non-reportable (small) traders were the offsetting sellers; the latter to the tune of a remarkable 20,366 contracts net sold. Supplemental reporting suggests nearly all the large spec buying (by a factor of over 10-to-1) was short-covering. When including recent activity, we think funds are net short 125,000 delta-adjusted futures. Not long ago when that short count was north of 350,000?!? End-user markets were quietly mixed Friday. A notable exception was ethanol, which closed the week 13 cents lower. Ethanol producers can still earn 15-20 c/gal spot profits today, but that is cut in half from levels seen two weeks prior.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2024 Corn for Grain Output Estimate: 15.168 mln mt; prior yr 15.421<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2024 Oats Output Estimate: 3.017 mln mt; prior yr 2.643<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2024 Barley Output Estimate: 7.600 mln mt; prior yr 8.905<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Ukraine Ag Ministry data released Monday pegged 24/25 MY grain exports at 8.7 mln mt as of Sept 16th, 2024 that compares with the 5.9 mln mt exported through Sept 20th, 2024. The 24/25 MY volume includes 4.8 mln mt of wheat, 2.5 mln mt of corn, and 1.2 mln mt of barley.<br> <br>-- Rabobank in Australia conducted a quarterly survey of farmers there, which shows confidence among farmers has improved due to improved rainfall across the growing regions, and strong livestock export demand helping support prices.<br> <br>-- Over the weekend, China's ag ministry said the country's sow herd at the end of July 2024 was 40.41 mln mt.<br> <br>-- On Friday, the Russian ag ministry set the Corn export tax for the period ending Sept 24th at 446.30 roubles/mt, down from 502.70 roubles/mt in the previous week.<br> <br>-- On Friday, the Russian ag ministry set the Barley export tax for the period ending Sept 24th at zero roubles/mt, unchanged from the previous week.<br> <br>-- On Friday, the Kremlin deferred all questions about Ukraine's allegation that Russian used strategic bomber to strike a civilian grain transport vessel in the Black Sea near Romania.<br> <br>-- France AgriMer on Friday estimated 79%of the country's Corn crop is in good to excellent conditions, unchanged from last week.<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: On Tuesday, grain trade sources reported Algeria is seeking up to 160,000 mt of Corn, and 35,000 mt of feed grade Barley in an upcoming tender. Algeria had an outstanding tender that closed back on Sept 5th, but traders say Tuesday's announcement indicates no purchase was made at that Sept 5th tender<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris November corn futures on Monday are trading -1.50 euros at 204.00 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Asian markets, including China, Malaysia and Japan are closed for various holidays on Monday, Sept 16th</span></div><br><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">KJ</span></div>