Morning Corn & Soybean Update & Commentary: Overnight, the markets were mostly firmer with gains extending into the dawn; by the morning pause, corn closed 10-11 cents higher in the new crop (while old crop CN ended just 4 higher), beans were 12-14 cents higher, oil added almost 2%, and meal gained $2-3. Today is "Position Day" in front of a long weekend....

Morning Corn & Soybean Update & Commentary:  



Overnight, the markets were mostly firmer with gains extending into the dawn; by the morning pause, corn closed 10-11 cents higher in the new crop (while old crop CN ended just 4 higher), beans were 12-14 cents higher, oil added almost 2%, and meal gained $2-3.  Today is "Position Day" in front of a long weekend (markets are closed Monday, re-opening that night), and shorts are clearly feeling a little nervous.  Forecasts remain mostly warm and dry for the Midwest for at least the next ten days, possibly two weeks.  Great for getting the crop planted (Tuesday's USDA progress report should be impressive), but the last month has been relatively dry, and we will be in need of a drink soon to start the growing season off right.  Other world conditions remain mostly favorable, including Europe, China, and Brazil safrinha.  Malaysian Palm Oil was higher for a third consecutive session overnight, which in turn is also helping Soybean Oil recover from a two-plus year low (now almost 10% above it).  Meal was the 'long' market from a fund positioning stand-point, but the near $50 break over the past two weeks has likely seen much of that length trimmed back.  Outside markets are still a little nervous with the debt ceiling overhang, though there is growing optimism 'something' will get done.  Crude Oil is bouncing back after a rough Thursday, the US Dollar is a little easier (but still trading +4% above recent lows), and equities are trying to bounce back after a tech-exclusive rally yesterday.



The corn market held mixed feature Thursday, though in the end, the bull spreads were the winner, testing recent highs.  CN finished 3 ½ cents higher, new crop corn ended either side of four cents lower, July Beans ended near the flat-line, while SX ended 13 cents lower, Meal finished down five cents, while Oil gained about +1%.  CFTC will be out tonight with a fund positioning update.  Both cash corn and soy trade was steady on the interior, while Gulf bids continued their recent rebound.  To no surprise, the weekly export sales report was unimpressive (to be kind), with the continued notable exception of meal.  Old crop corn featured net cancellations of -75,200, while new crop chipped in a positive +52,100 metric tons.  China and 'unknown' cancellations in old crop corn (331,600 and 216,700, respectively) were nearly offset by small traditional buyers such as Japan and Mexico.  Old crop sold and shipped moves to 38 million metric tons (mmt) versus 59 mmt last year.  New crop corn commitments stand 2.75 mmt, which is one-half the level seen this time last year (and a whopping 9 mmt on the books in 2021).  Old crop soybean sales were 115,000 metric tons, while new crop was near zero.  Total old crop soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus shipments) reached 50.840 mmt (1.868 bb) which is 14% behind last year's commitments for this date. Total commitments are 93% of USDA's projected exports vs 99% normal. New crop soybean sales on the books stand at just 2.6 mmt compared to 12.1 mmt at this time last year.  Old crop meal sales of 341 tmt were up 69% from the previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average.  Meal sold/shipped is running near year ago levels; a rare export success story (such as it is).



QT News - Top News



-- Weekly crop report from France AgriMer on Friday pegged Corn planting progress at 95% complete, that is slightly lagging the 97% pace in the year earlier week



-- Weekly crop report from France AgriMer on Friday pegged Corn conditions at 94% good to excellent, that is the first conditions report of the season and is better than the year ago week's 90% good to excellent.



-- Weekly crop report from France AgriMer on Friday pegged Spring Barley conditions at 95% good to excellent, also unchanged from the prior week



-- Weekly crop report from France AgriMer on Friday pegged Winter Barley conditions at 90% good to excellent, unchanged from the prior week



-- On Friday, Russia's Ag Ministry set their Corn export tax for the period ending at June 6th at 2,753.50 roubles/mt, that compares with the prior period's 2,565.80 roubles/mt



-- On Friday, Russia's Ag Ministry set their Barley export tax for the period ending at June 6th at 1,224.70 roubles/mt, that compares with the prior period's 1,559.10 roubles/mt



-- India's state run weather bureau Friday said they expect 2023 monsoon rains to be within normal ranges despite the nascent El Nino conditions



-- French Farms Ministry on Friday said bird flu vaccine recently tested showed "satisfactory results" and will launch a vaccination program this fall.  The government has ordered 80 mln doses.  Other countries are testing vaccines, and the Dutch said the first round of their tests show the vaccine is efficient.



-- Earlier Thursday the US Supreme Court in a unanimous decision overturned a stringent US EPA wetlands law, ruling in favor of an Idaho couple that challenged it.  The law has been broadly used to preserve wetlands that are "indistinguishable from the waters of the United States", but the court ruled the couples wetlands are clearly distinguishable from any covered waters.



-- German farmer co-op on Friday released projections for the 2023 crops, expecting winter Rapeseed production at 4.28 mln mt, that is little changed from last year's crop, and compares to their expected April outlook at 4.25 mln mt.



-- India's state run weather bureau Friday said they expect 2023 monsoon rains to be within normal ranges despite the nascent El Nino conditions



-- Sources cited by financial media outlets on Thursday afternoon say Bunge and Viterra are in talks to merge Viterra's operations with its rival.  Glencore has previously and publicly announced plans to review options for its Viterra seeking to unlock more value.



 

Pending Tenders:  NA

 



-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Friday are trading +1.50 euros higher at 220.25 euros/mt



-- Euronext Paris August rapeseed futures on Friday are trading +3.00 euros higher at 410.00 euros/mt



-- On Friday, Dalian July soybean futures fell -51 yuan ending at 5,023 yuan/mt; July soymeal fell -18 yuan ending at 3,472 yuan/mt



-- Dalian Sept vegoil futures on Friday traded sharply higher, soyoil jumped +136 yuan ending at 7,144 yuan/mt, palm oil gained +126 yuan ending at 6,784 yuan/mt



-- Malaysian June cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Friday traded +$5/mt higher ending at $840.00/mt and $850.00/mt, respectively



-- Malaysian August crude palm oil futures on Friday gained +61 ringgit ending at 3,554.00 ringgit/mt



-- On Friday, Dalian July corn futures rose +35 yuan ending at 2,600 yuan/mt



KJ