Afternoon Soybeans: New crop beans and meal continue to sink.
The soybean market was back under pressure after a higher start to the day, running sell stops after the market turned lower and took out yesterday's low on the nearby July futures. The old crop beans were able to fight their way back to settle just ½ cent lower and 19 cents off the day's low, but the new crop November contract was not able to recover as well and established a new low for its move with a settlement nearly 13 cents lower although it did manage to finish 9 cents off its low. Most of the influence around the trade was negative including light beans sales in the weekly export report, negative macros in a weaker crude oil and stronger dollar trade, a big week of planting progress, and weakness in meal.
In the product trade, meal extended its break to a new low under $400 despite a solid weekly export sales performance. Meal is the last Ag market where the funds are still long, and it appears they are exiting those positions. Bean oil traded higher as the beneficiary of the oil share spreading today despite the sharp losses in crude oil. The oil share spread settled at a two-week high to 37.9%. Board crush margins fell by a nickel in the nearby to 84 cents/bushel - a new low - while new crop gained 2 cents to $1.76/bushel.
Old crop soybean sales of 115 tmt were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 26% from the prior 4-week average. New crop sales were just 1 tmt. 38 weeks into the marketing year, total old crop soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus shipments) reached 50.840 mmt (1.868 bb) which is 14% behind last year's commitments for this date. Total commitments are 93% of USDA's projected exports of 2.015 bb, compared to 99% for the 5 year average on this date. Old crop outstanding sales on the books of 2.9 mmt are led by Mexico with 616 tmt, Japan 339 tmt, and Egypt 181 tmt, while China has just 57 tmt and unknown with 1.3 mmt. Accumulated exports stand at 47.9 mmt compared to 49.2 mmt a year ago. New crop soybean sales on the books stand at just 2.6 mmt compared to 12.1 mmt at this time last year.
Old crop meal sales of 341 tmt were up 69% from the previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average.
Elsewhere in the news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its Argie soybean production estimated unchanged at 21 mmt compared to the USDA at 27 mmt. Soybean harvest is 78.2% complete compared to 91.4% harvested at this time last year and the five year average of 91.7%.
Ukraine Ag Ministry data released Thursday pegged 2023 spring grain planting progress at 97% complete with nearly 5.3 mln hectares sown so far. Acres this season are expected around 5.5 mln ha down from last year's 5.9 mln hectares.
The Russian government has reduced the June export duty on sunflower oil to zero and cut the sunflower meal tax ty 23.8% to $62.6/mt.
Egypt has strategic reserves of wheat sufficient for 5.9 months, its supply minister told a news conference on Thursday, adding that vegetable oil reserves are sufficient for 5 months. These announcements are often a precursor to a tender announcement by the GASC.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Thursday said next year's crude palm oil production could be down by 1.0 to 3.0 mln mt due to effects from El Nino conditions. This year's production is forecast at 19.0 mln mt. The industry group noted the last El Nino event in 2016 pushed production down by -20% from the previous year.
Weather: Weather in the U.S. is still largely favorable for aggressive fieldwork this week. There will be need for rain in June, but the current dry and warm bias will be exactly that which is needed to get crops planted as quickly as possible. A close watch on June rainfall is warranted, though, with an expectation for continued lighter than usual rainfall and warmer temperatures. - World Weather Inc.
US Gulf firmer +75
Sioux City, IA steady +15n
Mankato, MN steady +20n
Decatur, IL steady +50n
Claypool, IN steady +80n
Columbus, OH steady +1.25x