Afternoon wheat comments: Winter wheat conditions improve 2% week over week to 34% G&E

Futures:
The evening started a little better for both Chicago and KC was a little better, and that trend continued until just a few hours before the night session ended. Mpls wheat futures saw slightly lower trade until shortly before the European markets opened. At that time trade firmed a bit, but like KC and Chicago, trade then weakened into the morning pause. The day started similarly to how the night ended, but around thirty minutes into the session the entire grain complex caught a bid. Wheat futures rallied around 15 cents, going from trading on their session's lows, to making new session highs. The markets would break down again late morning and trade spent the latter half of the day hovering around their session's lows. Both KC and Mpls finished the day between four and eleven cents lower, while SRW futures posted marginal gains.

Today was position day for December grain futures, and although the net result did not show any large moves in flat price, other aspects of trade was very busy, including spread trade and versus cashes. The recent storyline in wheat has been technical in nature. Chicago broke down Friday and Monday, and KC and Mpls finally did the same late yesterday, which may have been an influence as to why those classes traded a little weaker than Chicago today. Data from the condition reports after the close may keep that trend going tonight into tomorrow.

The final Winter Wheat ratings of the Fall were released today, and it showed conditions improving 2% week over week to 34% G&E, with P&VP ratings dropping 7% down to 26%. This compares to last year's 44% G&E and 23% P&VP. The first weekly report for 2022 will be released on Monday, April 3, but there will be monthly reports toward the end of each month.

Stats Can will update their production estimates on Friday morning. The avg trade est for All Wheat production is 34.8 MMT compared to 34.7 MMT in Sept. Durum production is est at 5.9 MMT vs 6.1 MMT in Sept and Spring production is est at 25.9 MMT vs 26.1 MMT in Sept. The avg trade est on Canola production is 19.2 MMT compared to 19.1 MMT in Sept and bean production is exp unchanged from Sept at 6.6 MMT. The avg trade est for barley is 9.6 MMT vs 9.4 MMT in Sept and the avg trade est for corn is 14.8 MMT compared to 14.9 MMT in Sept.

Headline news:
We will get our first December deliveries reported overnight. There are currently 0 corn receipts registered with the exchange 3,056 SRW, 5 HRW, 278 meal, and 39 bean oil. The Reuters poll sees corn deliveries of 0 to 200 contracts, SRW between 100 and 2,000, bean oil between 0 and 100, and no soy meal or oats.

The Biden Administration is encouraging Congress to act to facilitate a deal to keep the national railways operating ahead of the threat of a strike on December 5. The proposed legislation would take the tentative agreement reached on September 15 and turn it into law. This will probably have to happen to avert a strike, but one has to ask the question, why have unions and why even vote on a contract if Congress could say too bad and force rail workers to accept something they think is unfair? According to Berkshire Hathaway, the BNSF, the largest rail company, posted record earnings in 2021, and reported a net income of $6 billion. And that is just the BNSF. Where is the wealth getting spread to, because it is not the rail workers.

EU data shows that soft wheat exports during the week ending Nov 27 were 260 TMT. This puts cumulative marketing year exports at 13.89 MMT compared to 13.45 MMT this time last year.

South Africa's crop estimating committee pegged 2022 wheat production at 2.226 MMT, below last year's 2.285 MMT.

India's wheat planted area is up nearly 11% from year ago levels, giving hope that if Mother Nature is kind, the country will reap a much larger wheat harvest in 2023 compared to this year.

Export business around:
*** Jordan did not make a purchase in their tender for 120 TMT of wheat.
*** Turkey's TMO has provisionally bought 245 TMT of wheat, and more purchases are expected throughout the day. The grain board is seeking a total of 455 TMT. Prices so far have ranged from $329.90/mt up to $338.50/mt C&F.
*** Nov 30 Pakistan is in for 500 TMT of opt origin wheat.
*** Nov 30 (with offers valid thru Dec 1) Algeria's OAIC is in for a nominal 50 TMT of soft wheat. It is for two shipping periods: Jan 1-15, and Jan 16-31.