Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market leaked a little lower, finishing 6-7 cents lower by the morning pause. Though not quite as severe as yesterday, 'big macro' leans a little negative; the dollar is up a little while crude oil and stocks are down a little. Weather remains a little negative, with more rains......

Corn Morning Update & Commentary:  Overnight, the corn market leaked a little lower, finishing 6-7 cents lower by the morning pause.  Though not quite as severe as yesterday, 'big macro' leans a little negative; the dollar is up a little while crude oil and stocks are down a little.  Weather remains a little negative, with more rains creeping into the center of the Corn Belt late week; 6-10 & 8-14 day maps also suggests precip for the Plains.  With Kansas corn 25% dented, we expect the impact of the latter event to be somewhat limited, benefitting corn with lower maturities in areas that managed to withstand recent severe stress?  Last night's Crop Progress report is also a topic of discussion; crop ratings dipped again, but the rate of change lower is clearly slowing.  57% of U.S. corn is now rated Good-Excellent, which was down -1% wk/wk and close to trade expectations (and compares to 62% G-E last year).  16% was rated Poor-Very Poor, unchanged wk/wk, and compares to 13% last year.  State-by-states were a mixed bag, but the headliner was no doubt big bopper Iowa, where G-E ratings fell -7% (likely eyeing the dry SW quadrant).  Michigan (+6% G-E) and Minnesota (+4% G-E) were notable improvers, while South Dakota (-9% G-E) and Missouri (-5% G-E) also saw meaningful declines.  94% of the U.S. crop is silking, 62% is in the dough stage, and 16% has dented, all of which are slightly behind average.

The corn market started the week under modest pressure, finishing 12-14 cents lower. Funds were estimated net sellers of 10,000 corn on the day, which would leave them net long 65,000 delta-adjusted contracts. Cash markets were steady or lower, continuing the prior week's trend. Mid-day grain inspections continued along recent (lower) trends. For the week ended 8/11, U.S. exporters shipped 538,406 metric tons (mt), which was nearly unchanged from the prior week's 555,620, but lagged the year ago week's 792,596 mt. China remains the predominant destination of these late season shipments, taking 273,383 metric tons off the Gulf. There was no corn shipped this week to any destination off the PNW. YTD corn inspections move to 53.08 mmt, which compares to 64.70 mmt shipped one year prior. Barring a miracle, with less than one month left, total exports will likely fall short of current USDA export projections of 62.2 mmt (2.45 billion bushels). The market continues to watch a trickle of grain flows out of Ukraine (five more ships made it out overnight?). The ethanol crush continued a decent rebound begun last week; lower interior corn basis is also helping to restore small profitability.


QT News - Top News
-- Without Ukraine government assistance, and prospects of lower export opportunities, Ukraine farmers could reduce their winter planted crops by 30% to 60%, according to head of the agribusiness association.
-- Turkish Defense Ministry officials Tuesday said a total of five grain cargo vessels left Ukraine ports today, carrying wheat and corn cargoes. There were also four ships waiting for inspection and then inbound to Ukraine to pick up additional grain cargoes.
-- Ukraine Deptuy Infrastructure Minister Tuesday estimated some 3.0 mln mt of grain could be exported in September, and may eventually rise to 4.0 mln mt per month in the future. The official noted over the next two weeks they have some 30 applications for ship arrivals to export grain.
-- SovEcon analysts on Tuesday increased their 2022 Russian wheat crop forecast to 94.7 mln mt, that's up +3.8 mln mt over their previous outlook. They attributed better weather conditions for the increase. However, the consultancy noted 22/23 MY grain exports remain "painfully slow". Their barley production forecast is 20.6 mln mt, and corn production is at 15.1 mln mt.
-- The USDA welcomed passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, noting the spending plan will bolster new steps to increase nutrient management program flexibility, launch a new outreach campaign to promote nutrient management's economic benefits, and expand partnerships to develop nutrient management plans.
-- Trade sources Monday say Iraq has set August 17th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking nominal 50,000 mt US origin Rice.
-- Brazil Paranagua port officials on Monday noted one 55,000 mt vessel of distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) departed on its way to Vietnam. Today's shipment was the country's third shipment from the port ever, and the first Brazilian shipment since 2019.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Recap
USDA Monday weekly crop progress report: Corn silking progress at 94% complete compared to last week's 90% and year ago week 98%
USDA Monday weekly crop progress report: Corn dough progress at 62% complete compared to last week's 45% and year ago week 71%
USDA Monday weekly crop progress report: Corn dented progress at 16% complete compared to last week's 6% and year ago week 20%
USDA Monday weekly crop conditions report: Corn 57% good to excellent, 27% fair, 16% poor to very poor versus last week's 58% good to excellent, 26% fair, 16% poor to very poor
USDA Monday weekly crop progress report: Sorghum headed progress at 67% complete compared to last week's 55% and year ago week 80%
USDA Monday weekly crop progress report: Sorghum coloring progress at 30% complete compared to last week's 25% and year ago week 30%
USDA Monday weekly crop conditions report: Sorghum 27% good to excellent, 35% fair, 38% poor to very poor versus last week's 29% good to excellent, 36% fair, 35% poor to very poor

Pending Tenders
-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry announced an SBS tender to close on August 19th, seeking 40,000 mt of feed Barley delivery is expected by Jan 26th.


-- Euronext Paris November corn futures on Tuesday are trading -4.50 euros lower at 332.50 euros/mt
-- Dalian January corn futures on Tuesday traded -1 yuan lower ending at 2,738 yuan/mt
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil -$1.01 ; Gold -$7.10 ; Silver -23.7c ; US $ index +34 pts

KJ