Afternoon Soybeans: Beans melt down heading into the weekend.
The soybean market followed through on yesterday's negative price response after the crop report and settled at a five month low in the new crop. August beans dropped 50 ¾ on the day while the November futures led the break with a 62 ¾ loss. The weekly chart (basis July) reversed higher while August beans lost 11 on the week and November lost 29 cents in a wide swinging, volatile trade. A combination of long liquidation, new positioning, and weather are driving the action for the moment and the balance sheets will only be relevant once again after this cleansing has run its course. The GFS and EU weather models both feature widespread rains over much of the Midwest next week. There will be holes in the coverage, but these rains are just what the doctor ordered for most (assuming they perform) and would help to reverse the trend of drying soils and declining conditions. This time of year, weather trumps all.
In the product trade, both meal and oil were sharply lower. December oil was down by 3.2% and December meal by 4.3%. Oil share and board crush margins were mixed. While the energy markets bounced back with the start of the new month/quarter, the veg oils remained weak with Malaysian palm oil settling 4.1% lower to start the day.
We will be closed for Independence Day on Monday and won't reopen until Tuesday at 8:30 cst in what promises to a weather charged environment. Everybody have a safe and Happy 4th of July!
Elsewhere in the news, the Argentine truckers strike ended on Thursday, after some unions upset with diesel shortages reached a deal to lift the one-week protest around the major port of Rosario, which is expected to help the flow of grains for export going forward.
SGS on Friday estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports in June at 1.230 mln mt off -7.4% from May's exports.
USDA's NASS will collect additional information on 2022 Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota grain and oilseed planted acres due to planting delays in those states. Any revised acres will be released in their August 12th monthly crop production report.
Analysts are forecasting next Tuesday's Stats Canada planted acres report to show Canola acres at 21.3 mln acres, that compares with their April projection at 20.9 mln acres and last year's crop at 22.5 mln acres. The data will be released at 7:30 am CT, Tuesday, July 5th
Analysts are forecasting next Tuesday's Stats Canada planted acres report to show Soybean acres at 5.2 mln acres, that compares with their April projection at 5.4 mln acres and last year's crop at 5.3 mln acres.
US Gulf steady +78
Brazil Paranagua off 2 to +158
Sioux City, IA off 10 to +35q
Mankato, MN up 15 to +35q
Decatur, IL steady +140q
Claypool, IN steady +50n
Columbus, OH steady +75q