Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was mixed; futures traded to new lows in the dead of night, but ultimately bounced back into the dawn to finish 2-3 cents higher in new crop positions. July remains in its own little world, while Sept caught a little of the fever, finishing five higher by the morning pause. Heading into "Big Friday"....
Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was mixed; futures traded to new lows in the dead of night, but ultimately bounced back into the dawn to finish 2-3 cents higher in new crop positions. July remains in its own little world, while Sept caught a little of the fever, finishing five higher by the morning pause. Heading into "Big Friday", the official weekly chart (which is based off July) reflects modest gains, but in reality, new crop CZ is looking at 50+ cent weekly losses. The extent of the move is somewhat remarkable, especially when considering yesterday's big reports were relatively benign. But in July days, weather and fund liquidation can be a potent mix, especially when acting in tandem. Indeed, we have a big three day weather weekend coming; "million dollar rains" are in the forecast for the next week and the 6-10 & 8-14 day map bias remains warm and wet. The importance of these rains cannot be understated, as top soil moisture is depleted across much of the Midwest -forecasts need to start becoming reality! Today is also the start of a new quarter/month, and it will be interesting to see where the funds decide to deploy capital. We think they were active sellers of commodities yesterday at months' end? Energy is rebounding some after yesterday's shellacking, but equities and metals are defensive, and the US Dollar is screaming higher. There were no 8 AM sales reported today; South Korea did buy a couple of cargos for Oct delivery (likely not U.S. origin).
"Report Day" did not prove to be very kind to the corn market, despite fairly-neutral/undramatic USDA data. Corn price action was soft pre-and-post-release, making new lows shortly before the close. New crop futures finished 30-35 cents lower; even red-hot deliverable July ended 26 cents lower. Funds were estimated net sellers of about 25,000 contracts on the day, which would leave them net long 135,000 delta-adjusted corn. CFTC will update their position estimates tomorrow. Cash trade was mostly steady with a few pockets of strength on the interior. The weekly export sales report certainly didn't help the bull cause; old crop was a marketing year low 88,800 metric tons (mt) and new crop added just 119,300 mt. Total sold + shipped is now 97% of the USDA's sales objective for the year with two months left to go. The results of the June 30th reports played-out close to trade expectations for corn. Corn stocks in all positions as of June 1st were 4.35 billion bushels, which is 6% higher than the prior year period. On-farm stocks were up a whopping 22% on the year, while off-farm was down 6%? Confirms farmers were tight holders heading into summer? The USDA pegged corn acres at 89.9 million, which is down 4% from last year, but up slightly from the USDA's March Intentions report. This was right in-line with analyst expectations. There is one caveat here in that the USDA plans to re-survey farmers in the NW Corn Belt. Given wet conditions there in May, we would not be surprised if corn acres get trimmed some; USDA's March intentions may end-up looking prophetic?
QT News - Top News
-- Full trade day in grains on Friday, but the grain markets will have no Sunday night session, they will be closed Monday and Monday night for Independence Day and will not reopen again until Tuesday morning at 8:30 cst.
-- Grain traders Friday said 68,000 mt of optional origin feed Corn was bought by Major Feedmill Group in a privately negotiated deal. The price was said to be around $337.25/mt cf, and delivery is expected around October 17th.
-- Trade sources Friday reported 58,000 mt of optional origin feed Corn was bought by Korea Feed Association, paying a reported $343.49/mt cf. The grain is for delivery by Oct 15th.
-- European Commission on Friday lowered their 22/23 Corn production forecast to 71.7 mln mt off -800,000 mt from their previous month's forecast; they increased their 22/23 MY Corn import forecast to 15.0 mln mt from the 13.0 mln mt in the May report.
-- France AgriMer weekly crop report Friday pegged Corn conditions at 83% good to excellent, that compares to last week's 84%
-- France AgriMer weekly crop report Friday pegged Winter Barley harvest progress at 41% complete compared to last week's 26% pace
-- France AgriMer weekly crop report Friday pegged Winter Barley conditions at 62% good to excellent, that compares to last week's 63%
-- France AgriMer weekly crop report Friday pegged Spring Barley harvest progress at 5% complete compared to last week's 3% pace
-- France AgriMer weekly crop report Friday pegged Spring Barley conditions at 52% good to excellent, that compares to last week's 53%
-- Turkey's President on Friday suggested he would discuss with Ukraine and Russia about his country re-exporting Ukraine grains via the Black Sea
-- Ukraine's farm ministry on Friday estimated 1% of grain harvest has been completed, with 293,000 mt harvested so far in the southern and eastern regions. Yields of all grains averaged 2.23 mt/ha.
-- Deral on Thursday estimated Parana Brazil's second season Corn crop output at 15.45 mln mt down from their May forecast at 16.0 mln mt
-- USDA's NASS will collect additional information on 2022 Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota grain and oilseed planted acres due to planting delays in the those states. Any revised acres will be released in their August 12th monthly crop production report.
-- India's state run weather bureau on Friday forecast July's monsoon rains falling between 94% to 106% of the long term average. The bureau noted June's monsoon rains were 8% lower due to scant rains in the central region of the country.
Analysts Estimates for Stats Canada Acres
Analysts are forecasting next Tuesday's Stats Canada planted acres report to show Barley acres at 7.7 mln acres, that compares with their April projection at 7.5 mln acres and last year's crop at 8.3 mln acres. The data will be released at 7:30 am CT, Tuesday, July 5th
Analysts are forecasting next Tuesday's Stats Canada planted acres report to show Oats acres at 3.9 mln acres, that compares with their April projection at 4.0 mln acres and last year's crop at 3.4 mln acres.
Analysts are forecasting next Tuesday's Stats Canada planted acres report to show Corn acres at 3.5 mln acres, that compares with their April projection at 3.7 mln acres and last year's crop at 3.5 mln acres.
-- Pending Tender: On Thursday, Jordan set July 6th as next offer deadline in a tender seeking 120,000 mt of feed grade Barley. The grain is for shipment over the Oct 1 through Nov 30.
-- Euronext Paris August corn futures on Friday are trading -0.50 euro lower at 297.50 euros/mt
-- Dalian Sept corn futures on Friday traded -53 yuan lower ending at 2,739 yuan/mt
-- CBOT Deliveries: July Corn 0
-- CBOT Deliveries: July Ethanol 0
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil +$2.09 ; Gold -$17.30 ; Silver -71.2c ; US $ index +32 pts