Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Bean spreads and flat price firm ahead of report/first notice day.

Overnight grain markets were two sided but generally trading firmer coming into the morning break.  The bull spreads in corn, beans and meal continue to support the flat price gains with today being position day ahead of first notice of deliveries against the July futures.  Tomorrow we'll have export sales in the morning, quarterly stocks and planted acreage reports at 11:00 am, it is also month/quarter end so it will be a busy day ahead of the holiday weekend.  The grain markets will be closed on Monday the 4th with a hard re-opening Tuesday morning at 8:30.  The near term weather for US row crops outlook is not ideal with general drying an ongoing concern but the current forecasts offer enough timely rains to likely keep crops in decent shape overall through the first half of July.   July beans are trading 10 higher and November up 6 ½ at the break.

The outside markets feature crude oil trading $1.5 to $2/barrel higher in the WTI following the lack of a breakthrough in the latest round of talks with Iran. The dollar and the equities are trading a shade higher.

In the product trade, soybean oil is trading mixed while meal is extending its rally led by the front month July contract which is trading at a two month high. Canola is trading $2 higher while Malaysian palm oil was closed for holiday today. Board crush margins are 3 higher up front to $1.33/bushel with new crop a penny higher to $1.54.

The cash markets remain quiet with futures well off the highs and limited farm selling. Export basis is steady with demand very quiet while interior processor bids are mostly steady with more bids rolling out of the July and into the August basis.

First notice on July futures is tomorrow so longs will need to be out by today's close to avoid delivery risk. The CME shows no change in registrations of 0 corn, 0 beans, 0 meal, 98 oil, 1,010 srw, and 66 hrw receipts.

In the news:
• On Wednesday, grain trade sources reported Nonghyup Feed dismissed all offers in their 120,000 mt Soymeal tender that closed today. Prices were deemed too high, the lowest offer was around $550/mt cf.
• Ahead of tomorrow's USDA quarterly grain stocks data, analysts are forecasting as of June 1st Soybean stockpiles at 965 million bushels, that compares to March 1st stocks at 1.930 billion bushels, and the 769 mln bushels on June 1, 2021. The data will be released at 11:00 am CT, Thursday, June 30th.
• Analysts and traders expect 2022 US Soybean seeded acres at 90.45 mln, that compares to the March 31st forecast at 90.96 mln acres, and the 87.19 mln acres in 2021. The data will be updated on Thursday, June 30th at 11:00 am CT.
• In front of tomorrow's USDA small grains report, analysts are expecting US all Cotton planted acres at 12.19 million acres, that compares to the late March USDA forecast at 12.23 mln acres.
• Euronext Paris August rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading +6.50 euros higher at 690.00 euros/mt
• Dalian Sept soybean futures on Wednesday traded +25 yuan higher ending at 6,002 yuan/mt; Sept soymeal futures rose +21 yuan ending at 3,887 yuan/mt
• On Wednesday, Dalian Sept vegoil futures traded higher, palm oil gained +76 yuan ending at 9,604 yuan/mt, soyoil rose +58 yuan ending at 10,340 yuan/mt
• Malaysian Aug/Sep cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Wednesday traded -$10/mt lower ending at $1,262.50/mt and $1,265.00/mt, respectively
• Outside markets. Crude Oil +86c ; Gold +$4.60 ; Silver +5.8c ; US $ index +5 pts

World Weather Inc. Morning Highlights:
• Low soil moisture remains in parts of the U.S. Midwest and timely rain will be extremely important over the next couple of weeks
o Most forecast models are offering some timely rain, but its distribution may not be ideally suited leaving some areas drier biased while others get a little boost in moisture
o Second week rainfall potentials seem higher than those in this first week
• No excessive heat is expected in the heart of the U.S. Midwest for the next couple of weeks, but some hot weather will occur briefly in the Plains and far western Corn Belt today and Thursday briefly
o Extreme highs in the 90s to 105 Fahrenheit will occur in South Dakota today while other 90-degree heat occurs elsewhere to the south
? The heat does not get very far into the Corn Belt and is quick to abate
• Most longer range forecasting models for North America are still keeping the ridge of high pressure moving around between the high Plains and the Mississippi River and its frequent movement and change in intensity will help provide a variety of weather in key crop areas
• West Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas do not get good rainfall during the next ten days to two weeks and dryness will prevail
• A good mix of rain and sunshine is expected in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states during the next ten days
• Tropical Low off the Texas coast will bring significant rain to some of the Coastal Bend crop areas later this week and into the weekend
• Tropical Depression Two will continue interacting with northern Venezuela today and Thursday before turning toward Nicaragua and Costa Rica this weekend
o Torrential rain will impact Central America resulting in some flooding, but damaging wind should be limited
• Tropical Cyclones may also impact southern China, Taiwan, western Japan and the Korean Peninsula in this coming week
o Heavy rain and windy conditions will accompany each storm, but none of these will be strong enough to induce serious damage - at least not based on recent data
o Western Luzon Island, Philippines will also be impacted by heavy rain associated with a storm evolving in the South China Sea the next few days
• Europe Rainfall will be greatest from northern Italy and Austria to the Baltic States, Belarus and Poland over the coming week
• Dryness in Europe is greatest from Hungary and extreme southwestern Ukraine into Romania and Bulgaria and limited relief is expected in the southern part of the region
• Russia's Southern Region and eastern Ukraine are expected to stay drier biased for the next two weeks, but temperatures will be mild to cool through the first week which may help conserve soil moisture and protect production potentials
o Warming late next week could heighten some concern for the region
• China's weather will be favorably mixed for a while with no dryness issues. Much of the nation is wet and would benefit from drying especially in the northeast and south
• India's monsoon will continue to expand and intensify over the next week to ten days
o Some needed rain will reach Gujarat and Rajasthan over time
• Central and eastern Queensland, Australia and northeastern New South Wales will get rain Thursday into the weekend stalling fieldwork and saturating the ground
• Argentina will stay dry through the next two weeks in key wheat areas


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf steady +89
Brazil Paranagua off 5 to +155
Sioux City, IA steady +25q
Mankato, MN steady +20q
Decatur, IL steady +140q
Claypool, IN steady +50n
Columbus, OH off 30 to +75q