Afternoon Soybeans: Beans lagged the gains in corn and wheat.
The soybean market posted a third consecutive higher close for the first time this month as November futures settled 1 ½ better. The bean rally lagged gains made in wheat and corn but the market was able to capitalize on support from weekly export sales coming in on the upper end of the range of expectations, currency weakness in the dollar and strength in soybean oil. Disappointing export sales volumes overall were highlighted by another day without a daily sales confirmation while good early harvest reports are confirming a strong finish to the US growing season and when combined, ideas of US ending stocks are growing larger.
Weekly export sales were not impressive for corn or wheat, both coming in on the lower end of trade expectations at 373 tmt and 356 tmt respectively. Soybean sales were on the top end of expectation at 913 tmt including Chinese purchases of 624 tmt. China was also a buyer of 123 tmt of sorghum, 220 trb of cotton, and 3.0 tmt of beef. Meal sales of 261 tmt were solid while oil sales of 4 tmt were routine.
Marketing year to date soybean sales on the books stand at 22.658 mmt compared to 31.996 mmt this time last year. Of that total, China is earmarked for 10.786 mmt with unknown for another 7.320 mmt. Accumulated exports for the marketing year total just 533 tmt mmt compared to 3.426 mmt this time last year, issues at the Gulf are partly responsible for reduced exports and some of that will be made up as capacity is more fully restored in the coming weeks. Combined sales plus shipments trail last year's pace by 35% vs. 31% a week ago, the USDA is projecting exports to be 9.25% lower than a year ago.
In the product trade, veg oil strength was the feature trade today. With no fake news around to spoil the day, soybean oil capitalized on strength in palm canola and crude oil to settle 67 pts or 1.2% higher as the chart tries to stabilize its recent slide into three month lows. Meal got the short end of the stick with selling on the other side of the oil share and settled $1.7 lower. Malaysian palm oil which closed into new contract highs, up 122 ringgit or 2.8% for the day. Canola settled $9.5 or 1.1% higher but overall remains stuck within its extended sideways range. Crude oil is trading $1 higher and established a new contract high near $73.
Elsewhere in the news, China's Sinograin sold 260 tmt of soybean reserves out of 290 tmt offered at today's auction. Prices ranged from $691-$713/mt.
In an effort to meet environmental emission targets, several Chinese provincial governments have limited supplies of energy to certain manufacturing infrastructure including dozens of soybean processing facilities. Run rates on some facilities have been reduced to 40-50% according to reports and could last for weeks.
Agresource forecasts Brazil's 21/22 soybean production at 143.69 mmt compared to 133.14 mmt in 20/21. The USDA has them at 144.0 mmt for 21/22 and 137.0 mmt for 20/21.
US Gulf steady +75
Brazil Paranagua steady +225x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -20x
Mankato, MN steady -30x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady -5x
Columbus, OH steady -10x
Davenport, IA off 1 to -55x
Morris, IL up 7 to -38x