Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Veg oil strength is the early feature.

USDA Weekly Export Sales:
Est. (combined) Actual (old and new crop)
Corn 250-800 tmt 373
Wheat 250-650 tmt 356
Beans 600-1.0 mmt 903 and 10
Meal 75-300 tmt 45 and 216 tmt
Oil -10 to +15 4

Overnight grain markets were mixed with wheat and beans trading 3-5 cents higher and corn 1-2 lower heading into the biscuit break.

Weekly export sales were not impressive for corn or wheat, both coming in on the lower end of trade expectations at 373 tmt and 356 tmt respectively. Soybean sales were on the top end of expectation at 913 tmt including Chinese purchases of 624 tmt. China was also a buyer of 123 tmt of sorghum, 220 trb of cotton, and 3.0 tmt of beef. Meal and oil sales of 261 tmt and 4 tmt were routine.
Soybean sales on the books stand at 22.658 mmt compared to 31.996 mmt this time last year. Of that total, China is earmarked for 10.786 mmt with unknown for another 7.320 mmt. Accumulated exports for the marketing year total 11.190 mmt compared to 11.466 mmt this time last year.

There were no 8 am soybean sales announcements today but there was a private sale of 138 tmt of corn to Guatemala.

In the product trade, veg oil strength is the early feature led by Malaysian palm oil which closed into new contract highs, up 122 ringgit or 2.8% for the day. Canola is up $7.5 but remains within its extended sideways range. Soybean oil continues to recover from its break to 3 month lows trading 51 pts higher and gaining on meal in the oil share with meal down $1.1 early on.

The EPA biofuel mandate volumes published yesterday are fake news according to the RFS who claims somebody spoofed the media with inaccurate information.

Chinese authorities are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of China Evergrande Group, Dow Jones reports, citing unidentified officials familiar with the matter. Officials characterized the actions being ordered as "getting ready for the possible storm," saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion.
Rains have slowed harvest activity in portions of the ECB but should see drier conditions going forward. Above normal temps with needed moisture for the plains and WCB are the feature of the 6-10 day and 8-14 day maps.

The outside markets are a shade supportive with the dollar trading .35 lower, equities firmer with S&P up 22 handles while crude oil trades $..05 higher.

• Private India oilseed consultancy and trade group on Thursday suggested 21/22 India palm oil imports will likely fall -9% from the year ago period on increasing domestic supplies after India farmers increase their oilseed acreage. New marketing year imports are expected at 7.6 mln mt off from the 8.35 mln mt this year.
• Private India oilseed consultancy and trade group on Thursday see higher prices increasing India's Soybean and Rapeseed oil production to 8.5 mln mt an increase of 6%.
• Argentina will appeal US Court of International Trade decision to keep high import duties on Argentina biodiesel
• Finnish oil refiner and biofuels maker Neste forecasts sustainable aviation fuel demand to increase to 12 mmt by 2030 and the company plans to produce 1.5 mmt of biofuel annually by the end of 2023, up from current biofuel production of 100 tmt in 2021.
• Grain traders on Wednesday said GASC paid $1,288/mt cf for 12,000 mt of Sunflower Oil at the tender. The vegoil is for delivery in FH December. GASC last purchased 19,000 mt of Sunflower Oil on Sept 2nd, at that time paying $1240.00/mt cf. No purchase was made today in the tender for 30,000 mt of Soyoil.
• Top US grains council director for worldwide programs expects China to continue its record US corn purchases this marketing year. The senior director, Cary Sifferath, noted at the end of the 20/21 marketing year China purchased 842 million bushels of US corn, adding that China's rebuilt hog herd is seeking higher quality feed, and demand is also seen coming from their corn processing industry and poultry industry.
• Euronext Paris November rapeseed futures on Thursday are trading +3.50 euros higher at 610.50 euros/mt
• Dalian November soybean futures on Thursday traded +16 yuan higher ending at 5,971 yuan/mt; January soymeal futures rose +5 yuan to finish at 3,547 yuan/mt
• Dalian January vegoil futures on Thursday traded sharply higher, palm oil jumped +210 yuan ending at 8,478 yuan/mt, soyoil rose +140 yuan ending at 9,022 yuan/mt
• Malaysian December crude palm oil futures on Thursday traded +122 ringgit higher ending at 4,452 ringgit/mt
• On Thursday, Malaysian October cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded +$22.50/mt higher ending at $1,195.00/mt and $1,197.50/mt, respectively
• Outside markets. Crude Oil -53c ; Gold -$6.20 ; Silver -23.7c ; US $ index -28 pts

Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf up 4 to +75
Brazil Paranagua off 5 to +225x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -20x
Mankato, MN steady -30x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady -5x
Columbus, OH steady -10x
Davenport, IA off 1 to -55x
Morris, IL off 3 to -45x