Afternoon Soybeans: Soy complex bounces back.
The soybean market bounced back with a reversal trade that saw November futures claw back more than half of yesterday's losses with an 11 ½ cent higher settlement. The rally in flat price and the bull spreads unsurprisingly came with rumors of fresh Chinese purchases including 3-5 cargoes out of the Gulf for Nov shipment, stay tuned for confirmation. Beans spent the overnight session and early day trade under pressure with prices at three month lows but the negative macro influence from yesterday's trade had abated and the market was able to come up for air in a needed technical correction despite the lack of an export sales announcement at 8 am and advancing crop harvest.
In the product trade, meal and oil both posted higher settlements with meal leading throughout much of the day in the oil share spread but oil caught up later in the session to snap a three day slide in the share. Board crush margins were a couple pennies weaker to 86 cents/bushel. A modest recovery in crude oil was supportive to soybean oil. Canola had a mixed trade while Malaysian palm oil closed 19 ringgit or .46% higher on a strong recovery seen this month for export demand. SGS pegged their estimate of Malaysian palm oil product exports at 1.070 mmt up +36.7% over their Aug 1-20 period estimate
Elsewhere in the news, On Tuesday, Bank of America sovereign analysts lowered their Chinese growth forecast for 2021 to 8.0% from 8.3%, next year's growth is seen at 5.3% compared to previous expectations for 6.2% growth, and lowered 2023 GDP growth to 5.8% from 6.0% previously forecast. The reductions were in response to recent weak retail and factory data, and on growing default concerns around the property giant Evergrande.
EU trade data showed as of Sept 19th, accumulated 21/22 MY Soybean imports totaled 2.86 mmt, that compares to the year earlier week's 3.42 mmt. Rapeseed imports totaled 944,483 mt, that compares to the year earlier week's 1.52 mmt. Soymeal imports totaled 3.10 mmt, that compares to the year earlier week's 4.02 mmt.
Haiti has its first outbreak of the fatal pig virus African swine fever in 37 years according to the World Organization for Animal Health.
Reuters reports more than 60 vessels in the line up along the lower Mississippi River waiting to load grain once terminals are ready. Some export loading facilities have resumed operations in the center Gulf following Hurricane Ida including terminals owned by Cargill, LDC and ADM while Bunge in Destrehan has been running intermittently. Other terminals including Cargill's Reserve location remain closed for structural repairs. Yesterday's export inspections data showed activity out of the center Gulf has resumed with 350 tmt of grain loaded out although capacity remains limited as efforts continue to fully restore operations.
US Gulf steady +70
Brazil Paranagua off 5 to +225x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -20x
Mankato, MN steady -30x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN off 5 to -5x
Columbus, OH steady -10x