Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Soy complex weaker out of the gates.
Overnight grain markets sold off with plenty of red on the screen to start the week off. Grain news and fundamentals are overshadowed by the potential failure of China's Evergrande Group, a property developer with over $300 billion in debt, who has defaulted on a debt payment creating fears of contagion in the broader property sector unless Beijing steps in. Chinese markets are closed for their autumn festival, but global financial and commodity markets are selling off as traders exit riskier investments to get to the sidelines. The dollar is trading 17 pts higher and challenging the August highs, meanwhile equities and commodities are broadly pressured lower.
It was a big weekend for US harvest as warm and mostly dry conditions in the midwest continue push crops to maturity. Its still too early to get a feel for bean harvest results but on the corn side yields are variable with plenty of disappointing yield reports along with some very good crops.
There were no 8 am sales announcments.
In the product trade, meal and oil are both weaker as oil leads to the downside in the oil share spread. The macro pressure on crude oil trading $1.37 lower is dragging on the veg oil space including Malaysian palm oil which closed 94 pts of 2.2% lower and canola trading $7.6 of .87% lower.
The COT report showed managed fund money through the week ending 9/14 as sellers of the grains. They -2.9k corn (net long 212k), -11.1k srw (net short -6k), -3.5k hrw (net long 37.6k), -2.1k beans (net long 55.3k), -8.5k meal (net short -16.3k) and -5.9k oil (net long 47k)
• Egypt's GASC announced Sept 22nd offer deadline in a tender seeking 30,000 mt of Soyoil and 10,000 mt of Sunflower Oil. The vegoils are for shipment from LH November through FH December.
• Chinese customs data released Monday pegged August 2021 total soybean imports at 9.49 mln mt off from the 9.6 mln mt in the year ago month. The August total includes 9.04 mln mt from Brazil and only 17,575 mt of US soy.
• AmSpec Agri on Monday pegged Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Sept 1-20 period at 1.089 mln mt compared to the 788,211 mt in the Aug 1-20 period
• On Monday, Malaysian Palm Oil Board said the government kept its October crude palm oil export tax steady at 8.0%, the October reference price was 4,472.46 ringgit/mt
• Mato Grosso's IMEA late last week estimated 21/22 Soybean planting at 0.3% complete, that compares to the 0.02% in the year ago week. The agency noted farmers are waiting on more precip to accelerate planting progress.
• IMEA in Mato Grosso Brazil is projecting the state's 21/22 Soybean production at 37.4 mln mt up +3.8% over the previous season's production.
• Markit group on Friday projected 2021 US Soybean production at 4.381 billion bushels. The group is estimating 50.6 bushels per acre for yields this season, and harvested soy acres at 86.586 mln acres.
• Markit group on Friday projects 2022 US Soybean planted acres at 86.6 mln acres off -0.9% from the 87.385 mln this season.
• Markit analysts on Friday forecast 2022 US all-cotton planted acres at 11.753 million up +5.0% from the 2021 acres at 11.191 mln.
• Pending Tender: Grain trade sources Tuesday say 30,000 mt of Soymeal is sought by Algeria's state grain agency in a tender to close on Wed., Sep 15th. The grain is for shipment in either Nov 10-30 period or first half of December.
• Euronext Paris November rapeseed futures on Monday are trading -9.50 euros lower at 591.25 euros/mt
• China financial and commodity markets closed Monday due to mid-autumn festival
• On Monday, Malaysian October cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded -$15/mt lower ending at $1157.50/mt and $1,160.00/mt, respectively
• Malaysian December crude palm oil futures on Monday traded -94 ringgit lower ending at 4,167 ringgit/mt
• Outside markets. Crude Oil -$1.41 ; Gold +$5.90 ; Silver +3.3c ; US $ index +19 pts
US Gulf off 1 to +71
Brazil Paranagua steady +240x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -30x
Mankato, MN steady -30x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady opt price x
Columbus, OH steady -10x