Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was under some pressure, finishing 9-10 cents lower by the morning pause. Sunday night may have started with some harvest influence, but make no mistake, it's all about the outside markets early. As of this writing, the Dow is more than 600 points lower, the dollar/gold/bonds are all higher....
Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was under some pressure, finishing 9-10 cents lower by the morning pause. Sunday night may have started with some harvest influence, but make no mistake, it's all about the outside markets early. As of this writing, the Dow is more than 600 points lower, the dollar/gold/bonds are all higher, and industrial commodities such as crude and copper are both down several percent. Classic 'risk-off' day, all brought to you by Chinese property developer Evergrande, who is tottering on the brink of default with over $300 billion in debt. Difficult to relate this precisely to corn fundamentals, though with funds still heavily long corn, there could be some 'margin man' related selling, assuming the early macro plunge has legs. Moving along, the next three days could be a little damp across the Midwest, which may slow the steady drumbeat of harvest for a spell. Beyond, weather continues to look very favorable; 6-10 & 8-14 day maps are both warm and dry across the Midwest. It's also the season to start looking at planting in South America; southern Brazil has featured the best first crop conditions to date, though there is some speculation the monsoon could start soon in the dryer center-west and center-south. Argentina is just getting started; most expect a rather sizable bump in corn acres there this year. There were no 8 AM sales reported; note that Asia is on holiday today.
With an eye toward a big harvest weekend ahead, the corn market inched lower again Friday, finishing 2-3 cents lower. Volume and interest were both depressed. Corn finished the week with 24 cent gains, though over one-half were due to Sept contract expiration. Cash trade was steady at the Gulf but weaker on the interior. Most processors are now posting 'new crop' basis levels, though there are still big premiums paid, as needed (but only if direly needed), for prompt ship. CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week ended 9/14 found small fund selling in the markets. Large non-commercial traders were net sellers of 2,814 corn, which was a mix of both long liquidation and short-covering. Index (or long-only) funds were net sellers of over 10k corn contracts; Commercials and small non-reportables were the offsetting buyers. When including recent movement, we think funds are net long roughly 160,000 delta-adjusted corn contracts to start Sunday night. Analysts at the former Informa offered a glimpse at the 2022 U.S. acreage battle ahead Fri. In it, they pegged corn acres at 94.3 million, up over one-half mil from the current year, while soybeans are projected to fall a like amount to 86.6. With fertilizer costs ripping higher, it appears like a hard sell to preference corn over soy at current forward price levels?
QT News - Top News
-- On Monday, Jordan's state grain buyer set Thursday, Sept 23rd as offer deadline in a tender seeking 120,000 mt of feed grade Barley. The grain is for shipment from LH December through FH February. Jordan last purchased 120,000 mt of feed barley on Sept 16th, at that time paying $315.00/mt cf for half the volume and $319.25/mt cf for the other half.
-- Chinese customs data released Monday estimated August 2021 Corn imports totaled 3.23 mln mt up +221% over the year earlier month, the August figure brings the year to date imports to 21.4 mln mt, up +283% over the year earlier period.
-- Chinese customs data released Monday estimated August 2021 Sorghum imports totaled 810,000 mt up +27% over the year earlier month, the August figure brings the year to date imports to 6.71 mln mt, up +129% over the year earlier period.
-- Chinese customs data released Monday estimated August 2021 Pork imports totaled 280,000 mt off -21% from the year earlier month, the August figure brings the year to date imports to 2.93 mln mt, up +1% over the year earlier period.
-- Markit group on Friday projected 2021 US Corn production at 15.046 billion bushels. The group is estimating 176.3 bushels per acre for yields this season, and harvested corn acres at 85.34 mln acres.
-- Markit group on Friday projects 2022 US Corn planted acres at 94.3 mln acres up +0.6% over the 93.724 mln this season.
-- APK Inform analysts on Friday projected the 2021 total Ukraine grain harvest at 80.6 mln mt an increase of 24% over the previous crop. This season's harvest includes 37.8 mln mt of Corn, 31.2 mln mt of Wheat and 9.4 mln mt of Barley.
-- APK Inform analysts on Friday projected the 2021/22 total Ukraine grain exports at 56.97 mln mt up from the the previous crop's 45.49 mln. This marketing year's exports a projected at 30.0 mln mt for Corn, 21.0 mln mt of Wheat, and 5.4 mln mt of Barley
-- Pending Tender: Grain traders Tuesday say Turkey's state grain board set Sept 21st as offer deadline in a tender for 260,000 mt of feed grade Barley. The grain is for shipment in October.
-- Euronext Paris November corn futures on Monday are trading -1.50 euros lower at 216.50 euros/mt
-- China financial and commodity markets closed Monday due to mid-autumn festival
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil -$1.41 ; Gold +$5.90 ; Silver +3.3c ; US $ index +19 pts