Afternoon Soybeans: NOPA surprise stocks build caught up to the oil market today.

The soybean market had another two-sided trade that ended with November beans settling 1 ½ higher but 12 cents off the session high, once again failing to hold strength above $13.   Demand news was a supportive feature as weekly exports hit the upper end of trade expectations and those were supplemented with a couple of cargoes sold to China at 8 am.  The bull spreads were firm while the CIF bids at the Gulf held steady at +72.  Interior processor bids mostly continue their weaker trend with harvest knocking on the door.  

Weekly export sales came in light for corn at just 249 tmt combined, beans at 1.266 mmt and wheat at 617 tmt were each on the upper end of expectations. China was a buyer of 945 tmt beans, unknown for 163 tmt, Egypt 80 tmt, Taiwan 21 tmt and Indonesia 16 tmt. The weekly bean sales to China continue to come in larger than the daily sales have been indicating (370 tmt total in the daily reporting vs. 945 tmt in the weekly) suggesting some of the business is intentionally being executed to avoid the USDA's daily reporting requirements.

Current marketing year beans sales on the books total 22.031 mmt compared to 30.084 mmt this time last year. Of this total, China is earmarked for 10.228 mmt with unknown for another 7.320 mmt. Exports marketing year to date total 258 tmt compared to 2.143 mmt this time last year.

The USDA reported a private sale of 132 tmt of beans sold to China which should calm some of the demand jitters following yesterday's cancellations. US Gulf export capacity remains constrained following the Hurricanes but it is slowly returning. CHS says its Myrtle Grove, LA export terminal is still without utility power and while an exact recovery timeline is uncertain, they expect to be operational for the core of corn and soybean harvest.

In the product trade, soybean oil reversed sharply lower to close 1.53 pts (2.6%) lower with an outside day on the chart. It appeared that yesterday's larger than expected NOPA oil stocks caught up to the trade today. NOPA reported a surprise August oil stocks build to 1.668 bln lbs vs. 1.555 bln lbs expected and an increase from 1.617 bln lbs in July. The oil share liquidation supported a $4.5 higher meal settlement. Rapeseed was two-sided but closed $4.3 lower on selling late in the day while palm oil was closed for holiday. With the dollar firm throughout the day, crude oil spent most of the session trading weaker but managed to rally back to unchanged by the grain close.

Elsewhere in the news, French rapeseed growers group forecast this winter's and next spring's plantings up by
15% to 20% over last year. They attribute the higher plantings on better yield prospects and higher prices.


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf steady +72
Brazil Paranagua off 5 to +240x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -30x
Mankato, MN steady -25x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady opt price x
Columbus, OH steady -10x