Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Beans challenging $13.
USDA weekly export sales:
Est. (combined) Actual (old and new crop)
Corn .500-1.0 mmt .247 and .002
Wheat 300-700 tmt 617
Beans .600-1.5 mmt 1.264 and .002
Meal 75-400 tmt 95 and 42
Oil -10 to +20 tmt -2 and 6
Overnight grain markets featured beans and corn extending their recovery rallies into new highs while wheat was two-sided but a shade weaker as the sun came up; since then, the markets have weakened following the export sales report heading into the break. Beans are contending with the $13 SX level that has acted as overhead all month. The bull spreads from old to new crop are firm early on. The USDA reported a private sale of 132 tmt of beans sold to China which should calm some of the demand jitters following yesterday's cancellations. US Gulf export capacity remains constrained following the Hurricanes but it is slowly returning.
Weekly export sales came in light for corn at just 249 tmt combined, beans at 1.266 mmt and wheat at 617 tmt were each on the upper end of expectations. China was a buyer of 116 tmt of sorghum, 945 tmt beans, 184 trb cotton, 1.4 tmt beef and 1.8 tmt of pork. The bean sales to China continue to come in larger than the daily sales have been indicating (370 tmt total in the daily reporting vs. 945 tmt in the weekly) suggesting some of the business is intentionally being executed to avoid the USDA's daily reporting requirements. The balance of the bean sales went to unknown 163 tmt, Egypt 80 tmt, Taiwan 21 tmt and Indonesia 16 tmt.
Current marketing year beans sales on the books total 22.031 mmt compared to 30.084 mmt this time last year. Of this total, China is earmarked for 10.228 mmt with unknown for another 7.320 mmt. Exports marketing year to date total 258 tmt compared to 2.143 mmt this time last year.
The outside markets are leaning negative with the dollar trading 20 higher and crude oil 45 cents lower.
In the product trade, today it is meal bouncing back to trade higher and gaining on oil in the oil share spread. Soybean oil is trading more than 60 pts lower and unable to follow the leads of canola +$3.3 and palm oil +100 ringgit. After two days of recovery gains for the board crush, margins are back under pressure for a second day now with new crop coming into the day a nickel lower to 90 cents/bushel.
• Grain traders Wednesday afternoon indicate between four to six cargoes of Brazil soybeans for October/November shipment were bought by China earlier this week. Analysts say the purchases are unusual for the time frame given US harvest, but noted US Gulf ports have yet to fully recover from the hurricane that passed on August 29th.
• On Thursday, Intertek pegged their estimate of Malaysian palm oil product exports in the FH Sept at 853,625 mt up +61.5% over their FH August export estimate
• Wednesday's NOPA August 2021 US Soybean Crush: 158.843 million bushels; expected 154.2 mln bu.; prior month 155.105 mln bu
• Wednesday's NOPA August 2021 US Soyoil Stocks: 1.668 billion lbs; expected 1.555 bln lbs; prior month 1.617 billion lbs
• Wednesday's NOPA August 2021 US Soymeal Exports: 856,619 tons vs the prior month 719,508 tons
• Pending Tender: Grain trade sources Tuesday say 30,000 mt of Soymeal is sought by Algeria's state grain agency in a tender to close on Wed., Sep 15th. The grain is for shipment in either Nov 10-30 period or first half of December.
• Euronext Paris November rapeseed futures on Thursday are trading +5.25 euros higher at 595.00 euros/mt
• Dalian November soybean futures on Thursday traded +30 yuan higher ending at 5,900 yuan/mt; January soymeal futures lost -4 yuan ending at 3,533 yuan/mt
• Dalian January vegoil futures traded sharply higher on Thursday, palm oil jumped +186 yuan ending at 8,524 yuan/mt, soyoil gained +124 yuan to end at 9,094 yuan/mt
• Malaysian palm oil cash and futures were closed on Thursday for public holiday
• Outside markets. Crude Oil -23c ; Gold -$19.20 ; Silver -37.6c ; US $ index +17 pts
US Gulf steady +72
Brazil Paranagua up 10 to +245x
Cedar Rapids, IA up 10 to -30x
Mankato, MN off 5 to -25x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady opt price x
Columbus, OH off 10 to -10x