Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Gulf basis firm.

Overnight grain markets traded higher with November beans trading 9 cents higher ahead of the biscuit break with the bull spreads in beans firming.  Gulf basis continues to climb as export loadings slowly recover; CIF bean bids showing +72.  There are reports that China was a buyer beans overnight, 8 cargoes out of Brazil and 2 off the PNW.  The Brazil beans were bought for +425x for October which would be a new high price paid.  The Gulf coast is being soaked again with 4-10' rains from Tropical Storm Nicholas, this another speed bump for exports and may delay repair work from Hurricane Ida temporarily but is not expected to have produced any new damage to US export facilities.  September futures go off the board at noon today.  

In the product trade, oil and meal are both trading higher, but oil is leading in the oil share spread following a five session stretch of gains for meal in that spread. Soybean oil should have plenty of support from the sister veg oil and energy markets today. Canola is $19 higher with support from Stats Can production data. Malaysian palm oil closed 20 ringgit or .46% higher early on. Crude oil is trading at a six-week high near $71/barrel.

Stats Can canola production came in at 12.782 mmt vs. 13.6 mmt expected and well below last year's crop of 14.749 mmt. Soybean production was 5.886 mmt compared to last year's crop of 5.823 mmt. All wheat came in a 21.715 mmt vs. 21.9 mmt expected and below last year's crop of 22.948 mmt. Spring wheat was 15.321 mmt vs. 15.2 mmt expected and last year' crop of 16.102 mmt. Durum wheat 3.545 mmt vs. 3.8 mmt expected and last year's crop of 3.998 mmt.

The crop progress report showed soybean conditions unchanged from the prior week at 57% G/E and 14% P/VP, this compares to last year's crop at this time of 63% G/E and 11% P/VP. The states that saw the greatest week over week decline in G/E were IL -4, MS -4, NC -3 and SD -2. The states that saw the greatest week over week improvement in G/E were KS +2, LA +2, MI +3, MN +3, NE +2, OH +6 and TN +3. The crop is 38% dropping leaves up from 20% last week and well ahead of the 5 year avg. of 29%.

NOPA's August crush will be released Wednesday during the session and the avg. trade guess for crush is 154.2 mb compared to 155.1 mb in July and Aug 2020 crush of 165 mb. Soybean oil stocks are est. at 1.555 bln lbs down from 1.617 bln lbs in July.

News:
• Ahead of Wednesday's NOPA August report, analysts are forecasting US August soybean crush at 154.18 mln bushels, that compares to July's 155.10 mln bu and 165.06 mln bu in August 2020. The data will be released at 11 am CT on Wednesday.
• Analysts are forecasting NOPA's August crush report to show end of month Soyoil stockpiles at 1.555 billion lbs, that compares to last month's 1.617 bln lbs
• On Tuesday, the French Farms Ministry slightly increased their 2021 Rapeseed harvest estimate to 3.31 mln mt compared to last month's estimate at 3.22 mln mt
• Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its model-based estimates of Canadian crop production this morning around 7:30 a.m. CDT.
• Ahead of today's Stats Canada report analysts are forecasting Canola production at 13.6 mln mt compared to the 14.748 mln mt back in August.
• Euronext November rapeseed futures are trading +4.25 euros higher at 580.00 euros/mt
• CBOT Deliveries: September Soybean 0, Meal 0, Oil 0
• Dalian November soybean futures on Tuesday traded -29 yuan lower ending at 5,888 yuan/mt; January soymeal futures gained +7 yuan to finish at 3,532 yuan/mt
• Dalian January vegoil futures on Tuesday traded lower, palm oil was off -14 yuan ending at 8,240 yuan/mt, soyoil dropped -60 yuan to finish at 8,966 yuan/mt
• On Tuesday, Malaysian cash offers for Oct delivered RBD palm oil and olein traded $1165.00/mt and $1,167.50/mt, respectively
• Malaysian November crude palm oil futures on Tuesday traded +20 ringgit higher ending at 4,338 ringgit/mt
• Outside markets. Crude Oil +36c ; Gold -$5.70 ; Silver -20.1c ; US $ index -6 pts

Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf steady +72
Brazil Paranagua off 2 to +238x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -40x
Mankato, MN steady -20x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady +15x
Columbus, OH steady +20x