Afternoon Soybeans: CIF bids continue to recover.

The soybean market had a quiet, two-sided trade that ended with November futures settling 1 ¾ lower with the bull spreads trading a touch weaker.  Beans were unable to build upon Friday's post WASDE reversal but that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise when you consider the report itself was bearish, seasonally just ahead of harvest there will be plenty of selling on strength to overcome, and Chinese purchases while steady have not been impressive in volume.  Progress is being made to restore center Gulf export capacity and this is reflected in firming bids in the CIF market where beans were up 12 to +72 today.   

In the product trade, meal continues to correct higher with a $2.7 gain while soybean oil closed unchanged. Oil was unable to capitalize on strength in the canola, palm oil or crude oil markets as it appears that meal identified a value area and has gained back on oil in the oil share for five consecutive sessions. Board crush margins finally bounced back by 8 cents to 91 cent/bushel.


The USDA reported a private sale of 132 tmt of soybeans to unknown for 21/22.

Grain export inspections data was expected to be very light again today and it was. Export inspections came in at 138 tmt for corn, 105 tmt beans and 548 tmt for wheat. Gulf exports were limited to North Texas with the balance of exports this week were from the interior or the PNW. China took a cargo of beans off the PNW. We should start to see some improvement by next week's report as export terminals slowly ramp up operations in the wake of Hurricane Ida although high winds and heavy rains from Tropical Storm Nicholas can also cause some disruptions in the Gulf today and tomorrow.

Stats Can September production report will be out in the morning where crop reductions are expected, the avg. trade guess on canola production is 13.6 mmt down from 14.7 mmt seen in August.

NOPA's August crush will be released Wednesday during the session and the avg. trade guess for crush is 154.2 mb compared to 155.1 mb in July and Aug 2020 crush of 165 mb. Soybean oil stocks are est. at 1.555 bln lbs down from 1.617 bln lbs in July.

Elsewhere in the news, India reduced its import tax on palm oil from 10.0% to 2.5% and on soyoil and sunoil from 7.5% to 2.5% in effort to cool off domestic prices.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-10 rose 29.4% to 548,420 tonnes from 423,888 tonnes in Aug. 1-10, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.
Midday 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Forecasts:


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf up 12 to +72
Brazil Paranagua off 2 to +238x
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -40x
Mankato, MN steady -20x
Decatur, IL steady -10x
Claypool, IN steady +15x
Columbus, OH steady +20x