Afternoon Soybeans: Soy complex lower on month end position squaring and beneficial rains.

The soybean market broke sharply to close out the week and month.  November beans settled 28 ½ lower on the day, 2 ½ lower on the week and 50 cents on the month.  Beans have now posted three consecutive monthly lower closes following a historic streak of 11 in row higher.  

Today's selling was partly tied to month end position squaring but the large rain system casually moving across some key areas from SD, S MN and N IA on the radar today offered a solid weather justification. These rains appear to be breaking up as the approach the Mississippi River, but additional moisture is forecast into tomorrow for northeast NE, W IA, northern MO and W IL. Temperatures mercifully cool off through the weekend as a drier bias sets in and temperatures are forecast to heat up again next week.

In the product trade, both meal (-$5.5) and oil (-1.67) had down days with meal gaining in the oil share spread. It was a rough day all around for veg oil with the rapeseed market closing -$36 and Malaysian palm oil -58 ringgit or -1.3% with a reversal out of a new contract high.

The USDA June census crush data will be released on Monday after the close. The trade is estimating crush at 162.1 mb down from the May crush of 173.5 mb and compares to June 2020 at 177.3 mb. Oil stocks for June 30 were est. at 1.994 bln lbs compared to 2.147 bln lbs at the end of May and compares to 2.271 bln lbs at the end of June 2020.

There were zero soybean deliveries against the August futures, 6 meal and 1 oil.

Elsewhere in the news, The Dominican Republic's Ag ministry on Thursday said it is restricting pig shipments and mobilizing the military to further contain the spread of African swine fever. Both the US and Mexico are increasing airport inspections to stop travelers from brining in Dominican pork that can carry the virus.

Chinese customs data showed soybean imports during June totaled 10.722 mmt, down 3.9% year on year but up 11.6% month over month. Cumulative soybean imports Jan-June reached 48.95 mmt up 8.68% year over year. June soybean oil imports were 214,400 mt up 65% month over month with Jan-June imports reaching 662,300 mt up 95.8% year over year. Palm oil imports in June were 478,000 mt off 11% month over month with Jan-June imports reaching 2.93 mmt up 13.6% year over year.

IGC lowered its world soybean production estimate by 1 mmt to 382 mmt.


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf +6 to +75
Brazil Paranagua steady +79q
Cedar Rapids, IA off 5 to +55x
Mankato, MN steady +25x
Decatur, IL steady +95x
Claypool, IN steady +110x
Columbus, OH steady +60x