Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Discounting weather premium to start the day.

USDA Weekly Export Sales:
Est. (combine) Actual (old and new crop)
Corn 50-700 tmt -88 and +48
Wheat 300-600 tmt 473 and 5
Beans 50-700 tmt 62 and 176
Meal 175-500 tmt 68 and 19
Oil -15-+15 tmt 1

Overnight grain markets traded lower with beans correcting lower following a challenge near term chart overhead at $14 as the markets are now discounting the potential negative impact of the near term weather on crop conditions. The forecasts are suggesting the shift to hot/dry may not be a lasting trend with the EU model hinting at better moisture chances in the second week of the outlook as the ridge shifts back to the west. Weekly export sales were low which is normal seasonally, but new sales are being deferred by high prices and shipping costs. Look for a hard down start to the day with midday model runs likely being the key to how we close.

Weekly export sales were solid for wheat but dismal elsewhere. The feature of the report was China cancelling 160 tmt of old crop corn and 53 tmt of old crop sorghum. Bean sales included 62 tmt in the old crop and 176 tmt in the new crop. Outstanding old crop soybean commitments stand at 115 million bushels (29 mb China and 31 mb unknown). Old crop soybean sales plus shipments total 2.277 billion bushels which exceeds the USDA projected exports of 2.270 billion bushels ship with 6 weeks remaining in the marketing year. New crop commitments total 9.865 mmt compared to 13.731 mmt this time last year. Meal sales of 68 tmt old crop were a marketing year low while oil biz has ground to a halt.

In the product trade, both meal and oil are lower with oil losing ground in the oil share spread. Rapeseed is extending its break to the downside and has traded into its gap that extends to $844. Malaysian palm oil closed 28 lower to 4,121 ringgit.

World Weather Inc. estimates the flooding in China is impacting 91,000 square miles of a very important agricultural region in the Yellow River Basin. Rain amounts of 15.86 to 26.69 inches have occurred since last Friday from the southernmost part of Henan northward to west-central Hebei. Within this region rainfall extremes have reached 40.0 to more than 45.0 inches. Crop losses are going to be significant since this particular region is a fertile plain and may not drain very quickly. The region produces 17% of China's corn, 37% of the groundnuts, 4% of the soybeans, 3% of the rice and 9% of the nation's barley.

News:
• Grain traders Thursday repoted 4,000 mt of non-GMO soybeans was purchased by South Korean state run fishery. They reportedly paid $948.72/mt cf for the beans, they are expected for delivery between Sept 10 and Oct 20th. They had been seeking up to 7,600 mt.
• On Thursday, Ukraine stats bureau data released shows as of July 1st, the country's grain stockpiles at 5.4 mln mt, that is lower than the 5.54 mln mt on the year ago date.
• On Thursday, Ukraine Black Sea port officials say four largest ports have restricted grain loading operations on poor weather concerns.
• On Thursday, German shipping officials say southern Rhine River remains closed to vessel traffic, but noted water levels have continued to fall for the second day.
• Tens of thousands of Indian farmers has staged sit-in strike around parliament, they claim the newest farming laws have threatened their livelihood and are seeking to have them rolled back
• On Thursday, China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson said they expect last half 2021 foreign trade growth to slow compared to year ago levels. The ministry said increasing raw material prices and issues with shipping logistics will tighten trading company margins.
• Ahead of Friday's cattle on feed report, analysts are expecting as of July 1 on feed at 99.0% of the year earlier level. Placements are projected in June at 96% of the year ago level, marketings in June are expected at 102% of last year's levels. The report will be released at 2:00 pm CT Friday.
• Euronext Paris August rapeseed futures on Thursday are trading -13.00 euros lower at 510.75 euros/mt
• Dalian September soybean futures on Thursday traded -33 yuan lower ending at 5,650 yuan/mt; Sept soymeal futures fell -39 yuan to end at 3,653 yuan/mt
• Dalian September vegoil futures on Thursday traded lower, palm oil fell -56 yuan ending at 8,076 yuan/mt, soyoil lost -72 yuan ending at 8,904 yuan/mt
• Malaysian cash offers for September delivered RBD palm oil and olein on Thursday traded +$5/mt higher ending at $1067.50/mt and $1,070.00/mt, respectively
• Malaysian October crude palm oil futures on Thursday traded -36 ringgit lower ending at 4,113 ringgit/mt
• Outside markets. Crude Oil +68c ; Gold -$7.30 ; Silver -15.5c ; US $ index +2 pts

Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf off 1 to +71
Brazil Paranagua steady +82q
Cedar Rapids, IA steady +95x
Mankato, MN steady +55x
Decatur, IL steady +95x
Claypool, IN steady +70q
Columbus, OH steady +60x