Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Veg oils extend their recoveries.

Overnight grain markets were quietly mixed with wheat and soybean oil leading higher and new crop corn, beans and soybean meal weaker.  Weather continues to be the primary influence of market sentiment and in the case of corn and beans, there is something for both the bull and the bear but the near term outlook that features soaking rains across the heart of the corn belt is putting pressuring the new crop contracts.  The longer term impact of drought conditions in the Dakotas and surrounding area remain to be seen but are not going away.  The USDA flashed a new export sale of 330 tmt of new crop beans to China, confirming new biz that was rumored around the trade yesterday as China continues to extend fall coverage on the break.  Total new crop sales announcement on the week have reached 786 tmt. 

In the product trade, soybean oil is extending its recovery working on a possible fourth day of gains in both flat price and the oil share spread. Meal is weaker on the other side of the oil share spreading. World veg oils are modestly higher including rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil after this sector saw a deep flush through the first half of the month.

Quarterly stocks and acreage reports will be released on the 30th which is also first notice day on July futures and marks the end of the month/quarter.

News:
• On Wednesday, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced they will fan out investigators across the country to talk to mid and down stream grain and oilseed users to gather intelligence on supply levels and prices swings. They will also more closely monitor bulk commodity spot market transactions to combat speculative buying and ensure supply.
• Trade sources Tuesday said Egypt's GASC bought 73,500 mt of vegoils in today's tender, that included 63,000 mt of Soyoil and 10,500 mt of Sunflower Oil
• Weekly Manitoba crop report Tuesday noted rainfall is urgently needed to meet expected yield forecasts, and some crops may be maturing quicker than normal and moving into reproductive stages faster than expected due to drought stress.
• Analysts are expecting Thursday's quarterly USDA hogs/pigs report to show as of June 1 all hogs at 98% of the year ago level, those kept for breeding at 99% and those kept for marketing at 98% of the year earlier levels.
• Analysts are expecting Thursday's quarterly USDA hogs/pigs report to show June-August farrowing intentions at 97% of the year ago level, the September-November intentions are seen at 99% of the year earlier level
• Euronext Paris August rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading +8.50 euros higher at 503.00 euros/mt
• Dalian September soybean futures on Wednesday traded +38 yuan higher ending at 5,745 yuan/mt; Sept soymeal futures fell -7 yuan to end at 3,393 yuan/mt
• Dalian Sept vegoil futures traded higher on Wednesday, soyoil gained +112 yuan to end at 8,120 yuan/mt, palm oil rose +94 yuan to finish at 6,978 yuan/mt
• Malaysian August cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Wednesday traded +$12.50/mt higher ending at $917.50/mt and $920.00/mt, respectively
• Malaysian September crude palm oil futures on Wednesday traded +55 ringgit higher ending at 3,445 ringgit/mt
• Outside markets. Crude Oil ; Gold ; Silver ; US $ index


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf steady +53
Brazil Paranagua off 10 to +15n
Cedar Rapids, IA up 10 to +20q
Mankato, MN steady +10n
Decatur, IL steady +70x
Claypool, IN steady +50n
Columbus, OH steady +15n