Afternoon Soybeans: World veg oil strength resumes.

The soybean market weakened 5 cents lower in the old crop but nothing has changed as we continue to consolidate and chop around either side of the $14 for now, finding limited follow through in either direction for now.  The trade has grown tired of the back and forth as is evidenced in the limited trade volumes on the board.   

It is somewhat of a mixed Southern Hemisphere crop scene where dryness concerns in Argentina through S Brazil are offset by slowly expanding harvest of a record crop in Brazil that will help replenish world supplies until the next US crop. The forecast for Argentina continues to promote mostly dry and hot conditions for another week, at least. The crop areas that missed out on relief from some of the recent relief will see increasing levels of stress during this latest dry stretch. March is the main pod filling month for Argentina's bean crop so the absence of moisture is not ideal. Brazilian rains across the central to northern growing regions are forecast to continue with regularity - this pattern continues to slow soybean harvest and is causing some quality issues although the bigger impact is squarely on the Safrinha corn planting delays that have the potential to reduce production more significantly.

In the product trade, veg oil strength was once again the feature. Soybean oil posted modest 12 pt gains but have not corrected very far from last week's high. Canola gained 14 CAD and is poised for a challenge of its all time high established way back in the last week. Malaysian palm oil closed +1% and similarly is postured to run at its recent high. The spread between palm oil and soybean oil has widened to $166/mt which is a two-year low. The oil share spread is challenging 8-year highs just over 38%.


The USDA March WASDE is next week on the 9th, this is not typically a major report and more of an appetizer for the main course on the 31st for the quarterly stocks and prospected plantings reports. Private farm surveys are underway. Those results will be hitting the wires in the coming weeks to grab hold of the market's attention and influence price action and expectations leading into the report.

For tomorrow's weekly export sales report, the range of trade estimates on combined corn sales is .450-1.050 mmt, wheat 100-600 tmt, beans 100-800 tmt, meal 100-300 tmt and oil 0-25 tmt.

Elsewhere in the news, China's Ag Ministry Wednesday acknowledged an outbreak of African swine fever in the southwestern Yunnan province. The disease was detected in illegally transported piglets.

Spread action:
• Soybean bull spreads mixed.
• Board crush margins steady 61 cents/bushel.
• Oil share higher 37.2%.
• New crop bean/corn ratio 2.58%.


Soybean Basis:
Location Spot
US Gulf up 1 to +70
Brazil Paranagua steady +10
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -16k
Mankato, MN steady -5k
Decatur, IL steady +18k
Claypool, IN steady +40k
Columbus, OH steady +10k