Afternoon Soybeans: Beans continue to climb.
The soybean market fought off overnight sell pressure and what looked like the start of an overdue correction to instead post an outside day up into a new high, another show of power/positive technical signal. Futures volume was solid, but the options trade was notably large with over 63k Nov calls/puts changing hands. There was some producer selling around but more restrained than what we have seen and chewed through in recent weeks. It is estimated funds are long well over 200k beans.
The news around the market was Chinese demand with the USDA reporting yet another new sale, this time of 327 tmt of beans. The business to China/unknown has become routine since the start of July and continues to support higher prices. Mostly favorable finishing weather for the Midwest helps to stabilize and even improve ideas of yield nationally after a very dry and stressful August. Do not discount the impact of those rains last week across IA and the dry Northern 2/3 of IL, those were million-dollar rains. This leaves the heavy lifting on demand from here.
In the product trade, both meal and oil traded sharply higher in effort to keep up with beans and support crush margins. Board crush gained 3 cents to 89 cents/bushel. Oil fundamentals domestically and globally are supportive on their own. Oil stocks in yesterday's NOPA August crush slipped to a 9-month low.
For tomorrow's weekly export sales report, the range of trade estimates for corn is .800-1.9 mmt, wheat 300-700 tmt, beans 1.5-2.8 mmt, meal 225-550 tmt and oil 0-40 tmt. There were daily sales of 102 tmt of corn and 1.229 mmt of beans that should hit this report.
• Soybean bull spreads firm.
• Board crush margins up 3 to 89 cents/bushel.
• Oil share slightly higher to 34.8%.
US Gulf steady +72
Brazil steady +175
Cedar Rapids, IA steady -50x
Mankato, MN steady -28x
Decatur, IL steady +15x thru 9/18 then opt price
Claypool, IN steady +5x thru 9/20 then -15x
Delphos, OH steady -15x