Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market held about steady, finishing effectively unchanged by the AM break. Still solidly within the recent price band, though we are quickly approaching the top end of it with a modest amount of momentum? The focus this week....
Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market held about steady, finishing effectively unchanged by the AM break. Still solidly within the recent price band, though we are quickly approaching the top end of it with a modest amount of momentum? The focus this week will remain on the U.S.-China "Phase One" deal, which is expected to be inked tomorrow during the session (around 10:30 AM Chicago time). Though we still think details will be relatively sparse, the grain markets are currently respecting the potential of the Chinese to alter S&D's with larger imports. South American weather remains rather neutral-leaning-bearish, with recent rains deemed favorable for the markets. A couple of prominent analysts have trimmed Brazil first crop corn projections, but it is unclear if recent rains in dry RGDS province were included in their rubric? AgRural pegged first crop Brazil corn at 20.1 million metric tons, which compared to 21.3 projected prior. Remember, second crop corn, which is planted behind soybeans, is nearly 4x the size. USDA confirmed that it 'estimated' the unharvested bushels in the Dakotas and included them in both the crop production and 'on farm storage' section of the Quarterly Stocks report. Re-survey due later, but a massive production downgrade is unlikely. Still, adds a little ammo to the notion that January's crop report was net friendly to corn, as we discussed Fri/Mon.
The corn market was the standout performer in the grain complex Monday, maintaining modest strength throughout the session despite a rather limp performance from soy and wheat. Corn finished three-plus cents higher up-front and about two cents higher in the new crop. Managed Money traders were net buyers of about 10,000 corn on the day, which would leave them net short an estimated 90,000 contracts. Cash trade was broadly steady. Mid-day grain inspections were on the low side; just 460,307 metric tons of corn were shipped out for week ended 1/9. Still a holiday footing, no doubt, but this excuse will start to wear thin soon? This compares to 550k mt the prior week and was less than half the year ago week's 1.01 mmt. YTD corn inspections are 9.06 mmt versus 19.49 at the same juncture in 18/19. No corn of consequence was shipped off the PNW during the reported week. Japan bought corn out of the Gulf? With South America nearly sold out and Black Sea grain prices in a general upward march, we continue to see U.S. corn export competitiveness improving, which should culminate in improved business (ie: back to more 'normal' levels) in early 2020.
QT News - Top News
-- Grain traders Tuesday said Algeria has set Wednesday, Jan 15th as next offer deadline in a tender seeking 15,000 mt of feed Barley and 15,000 mt of Corn.
-- Russian grain industry sources, according to media reports, say the Russian Ag Ministry is planning first half 2020 grain export quota system
-- Chinese customs data released Tuesday pegged 2019 total beef imports at 1.659 mln mt, total 2019 Pork imports at 2.108 mln mt.
-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry on Wednesday said the are seeking 120,000 mt of feed Wheat and 200,000 mt of feed Barley in their next SBS tender to close on January 15th.
-- Pending Tender: Grain traders Tuesday said India's MMTC has increased their tender volume to 175,000 mt of non-GMO Corn from the 50,000 mt initially announced, they have also pushed their tender deadline back to Jan 14th from Jan 7th, but offers must remain valid until Jan 20th.
-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Tuesday are trading +0.25 euro higher at 173.25 euros/mt
-- Dalian May corn futures on Tuesday traded +9 yuan higher ending at 1,922 yuan/mt
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil up +33c; Gold off -$6.80; Silver off -23.6c ; US $ index up +12 pts
QT News Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
12 pros 11 pros
Jan +51/55 H +50/56 H +118/125 H +170/178 H +132/140 H 335/345
Feb +49/54 H +56/59 H +118/125 H +175/182 H +134/142 H 340/350
Mch +46/54 H +57/60 H +118/125 H +175/186 H +134/142 H 340/350
Hi-pro meal Soy oil
Chicago -2 H +13 H +30 H
Toledo -5 H +23 H +15 H
Dec ILL +8 H +18 H -29 H -50 H