Morning Corn: Overnight, the corn market was weak, leaving Friday's close behind and finishing 6-7 cents lower by the AM break. Better-than-expected rains is the primary suspect; though they were surprisingly scattered, weekend systems did stick 1-2 inch.....
Overnight, the corn market was weak, leaving Friday's close behind and finishing 6-7 cents lower by the AM break. Better-than-expected rains is the primary suspect; though they were surprisingly scattered, weekend systems did stick 1-2 inch rains in S MN, S IA, MO, KS, parts of IL, parts of IN, and NW OH. Rains over the next week favor the southern reaches of the Midwest, missing ~85% of major growing areas? 6-10 maps are warm/wet, while the 8-14 day turns cooler and somewhat dryer. Certainly not cool enough to stimulate frost jitters, though that may become the next major topic of conversation once the calendar flips to Sept? This week is "Crop Tour Week", with the granddaddy of them all, the ProFarmer Tour, kicking off today with both an eastern and western leg. Given the variability of crops (both in quality and maturity) and the well-publicized early issues, the tour will likely be given more attention than usual. Still, we feel it necessary to remind everyone that these tours are typically more for "entertainment" than for hard analysis. Take them with a grain of salt! Crop Progress data tonight is expected to uncover another "unchanged" to perhaps slightly better week for corn ratings, along with the familiar theme of "way behind" crop maturities. "Position Day" for Sept delivery is just under two weeks away.
The corn market was among the downtrodden markets that took part in a solid "Feel-Good Friday" bounce. Corn's rally was among the more impressive, posting 9-10 cent gains in the front few months. That's the good news. The bad news is, Friday barely made a dent in the week's overall ~40 cent slide. Cash trade was steady with a firmer tone; CIF bids also managed a bounce, popping 1-2 cents in spot slots. CFTC Commitment of Traders data uncovered a fair amount of fund selling in corn, though it was slightly less than expected overall. For the week ended 8/13, large non-commercial (aka 'fund') traders were viewed net sellers of 42,087 corn, which would take them to just 17,213 net long. Commercials and Index Funds were the net buyers on the week, while the Small Trader was a fairly large net seller (as the move likely ran stops and/or caused "margin call liquidation"). When including Wed-Fri estimates, we believe funds are heading into the weekend net long ~10k corn. Livestock markets actually had it worse than the row crops; cattle finished $8 lower for the week and hogs $4 lower (including a 'limit-down' day in the Oct Fri). Ethanol managed to crawl back above $1.30 to end the week with its own Fri bounce, though producer margins are still quite negative.